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作者

Carole Turley Voulgaris

来源

JOURNAL OF PLANNING LITERATURE,Vol.34,Issue3,P.300–317

语言

英文

关键字

transportation, demographic analysis, econometric methods, ethics

作者单位

1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo, CA, USA

摘要

As a discipline that concerns itself with the future, planning relies on forecasts to inform and guide action. With this reliance comes a concern that the best possible forecasts be produced. This review identifies three distinct ways in which forecasts may be evaluated (methodology, accuracy, and usefulness) and describes challenges associated with evaluating forecasts along any of these three dimensions. By way of example, this general discussion of forecasting is applied to the specific case of demand forecasts for transportation infrastructure, with an emphasis on transit infrastructure. There is a continuing need for planners to engage with interdisciplinary forecasting literature.