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作者

来源

INTERNATIONAL REGIONAL SCIENCE REVIEW,Vol.40,Issue1,P.75-96

语言

英文

关键字

regional growth; spatial econometrics; vector autoregressions; spillovers; BUSINESS CYCLES; GROWTH; TRADE; SYNCHRONIZATION; EUROPE; TESTS; TIME; AREA; UNIT

作者单位

[Ramajo, Julian; Marquez, Miguel A.] Univ Extremadura, Elvas Ave, E-06071 Badajoz, Spain. [Hewings, Geoffrey J. D.] Univ Illinois, Urbana, IL USA. Ramajo, J (reprint author), Univ Extremadura, Elvas Ave, E-06071 Badajoz, Spain. E-Mail: ramajo@unex.es

摘要

This article contributes to the recent literature in spatial econometrics that focuses on space-time data modeling implementing a multilocation time-series statistical framework to analyze a regional system. Drawing on the global vector autoregression approach introduced in Pesaran, Schuermann, and Weiner, a multiregional spatial vector autoregressive (MultiREG-SpVAR) model is formulated and then applied to study the spatiotemporal transmission of macroeconomic shocks across the regions in Spain. The empirical application analyzes the extent to which a region's economic output growth is influenced by the growth of its neighbors (push-in or inward growth effect), and also investigates the relevance of spillovers derived from temporary region specific output growth shocks (push-out or outward growth effect). Our results identify some regions that perform as growth generators within the Spanish regional system since growth shocks from these regions spillover to a large number of regions of the country, playing a key role in the transmission of regional business cycles. The policy implications of our results suggest that national and/or regional governments should stimulate economic activity in these leading regions in order to enhance the economic recovery process of the whole Spanish economy.