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作者

来源

LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING,Vol.157,P.161-169

语言

英文

关键字

Private land conservation; Wildland urban interface; Housing development; Wildfire; Fire risk; Econometrics; Southern California; WILDLAND-URBAN INTERFACE; OPEN SPACE; SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA; ECOSYSTEM SERVICES; MARKET FEEDBACKS; UNITED-STATES; GROWTH; MANAG

作者单位

[Butsic, Van] Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Environm Sci Policy & Management, 327 Mulford Hall,MC 3114, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. [Syphard, Alexandra D.] Conservat Biol Inst, 136 SW Washington Ave,Suite 202, Corvallis, OR 97333 USA. [Keeley, Jon E.] US Geol Survey, Western Ecol Res Ctr, Sequoia Kings Canyon Field Stn, Three Rivers, CA 93271 USA. [Bar-Massada, Avi] Univ Haifa, Dept Biol & Environm, 199 Aba Khoushy Ave, IL-3498838 Haifa, Israel. Butsic, V (reprint author), Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Environm Sci Policy & Management, 327 Mulford Hall,MC 3114, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. E-Mail: vanbutsic@berkeley.edu; asyphard@consbio.org; jon_keeley@usgs.gov; barmassada@gmail.com

摘要

The purchase of private land for conservation purposes is a common way to prevent the exploitation of sensitive ecological areas. However, private land conservation can also provide other benefits, one of these being natural hazard reduction. Here, we investigated' the impacts of private land conservation on fire risk to homes in San Diego County, California. We coupled an econometric land use change model with a model that estimates the probability of house loss due to fire in order to compare fire risk at the county and municipality scale under alternative private land purchasing schemes and over a 20 year time horizon. We found that conservation purchases could reduce fire risk on this landscape, and the amount of risk reduction was related to the targeting approach used to choose which parcels were conserved. Conservation land purchases that targeted parcels designated as high fire hazard resulted in lower fire risk to homes than purchases that targeted low costs or high likelihood to subdivide. This result was driven by (1) preventing home placement in fire prone areas and (2) taking land off the market, and hence increasing development densities in other areas. These results raise the possibility that resource conservation and fire hazard reduction may benefit from combining efforts. With adequate planning, future conservation purchases could have synergistic effects beyond just protecting ecologically sensitive areas. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.