Does infill outperform climate-adaptive growth policies in meeting sustainable urbanization goals? A scenario-based study in California, USA

《Does infill outperform climate-adaptive growth policies in meeting sustainable urbanization goals? A scenario-based study in California, USA》

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来源: LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING,Vol.157,P.483-492

语言: 英文

关键字: Urban growth model; Scenario modeling; infill; UPlan; Climate mitigation and adaptation; Sustainable urbanization; LAND-USE CHANGE; ECOSYSTEM SERVICES; BIODIVERSITY; IMPACTS; ECOLOGY; REGION; FOOD

作者单位: [Thorne, James H.; Bjorkman, Jacquelyn] Univ Calif Davis, Dept Environm Sci & Policy, Environm Informat Ctr, One Shields Ave, Davis, CA 95616 USA. [Santos, Maria J.] Univ Utrecht, Dept Innovat Environm & Energy Sci, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Heidelberglaan 2, NL-3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands. [Soong, Oliver; Ikegami, Makihiko; Hannah, Lee] Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Bren Sch Environm Sci & Management, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA. [Seo, Changwan] Natl Inst Ecol, Div Climate & Ecol, 1210 Geumgang Ro, Seocheon Gun 325813, Chungcheongnam, South Korea. Thorne, JH (reprint author), Univ Calif Davis, Dept Environm Sci & Policy, Environm Informat Ctr, One Shields Ave, Davis, CA 95616 USA. E-Mail: jhthorne@ucdavis.edu

摘要: Land allocation for urban growth is central to sustainable development strategy because urban growth can impact space available for food production, ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation. Urbanization is a growing stressor due the 2.5 billion additional people projected to live in urban areas by 2050. Potential climate change impacts to natural systems increase the need for sustainable urbanization, which should integrate land use needs for urban growth with climate adaptation objectives such as maintaining biodiversity, food production and ecosystem services. Here we compare climate-neutral and climate-adaptive urbanization scenarios to see which produces the most sustainable urbanization, defined as being the most effective at meeting development, conservation, and two climate adaptation objectives. We modeled five urban growth scenarios portraying an increase of 25.8 million people by 2050 for California, USA comprising three climate-neutral scenarios: business-as-usual, compact-new-growth and infill (redevelopment); and two climate-adaptive scenarios: preservation of agricultural climate refugia or future plant dispersal corridors. Infill was the least impacting for the multiple objectives tested; preserving 46-57% more land for other uses. Each climate-adaptive scenario reduced land consumption for its respective target, but increased impacts to the opposite climate-adaptive scenario target. Infill has the potential to contribute towards sustainable urbanization, particularly if combined with other climate adaptation targets. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.