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作者

来源

LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING,Vol.160,P.96-106

语言

英文

关键字

Urban sprawl; Population growth; Sealed surfaces; Land-use modelling; Historical calibration; Densification; URBAN AREAS; CELLULAR-AUTOMATA; ALACHUA COUNTY; LAND-COVER; BELGIUM; FLANDERS; PATTERNS; EUROPE; SPRAWL; FORM

作者单位

[Crols, Tomas; Vanderhaegen, Sven; Canters, Frank] Vrije Univ Brussel, Dept Geog, Cartog & GIS Res Grp, Brussels, Belgium. [Crols, Tomas; Engelen, Guy; Poelmans, Lien; Uljee, Inge] VITO Flemish Inst Technol Res, Environm Modelling Unit, Mol, Belgium. [Whites, Roger] Mem Univ Newfoundland, Dept Geog, St John, NF, Canada. Crols, T (reprint author), Vrije Univ Brussel, Dept Geog, Pl Laan 2, B-1050 Brussels, Belgium. E-Mail: tcrols@vub.ac.be; svdhaege@vub.ac.be; fcanters@vub.ac.be; guy.engelen@vito.be; lien.poelmans@vito.be; inge.uljee@vito.be; roger@mun.ca

摘要

Many countries in Europe and North America see their natural and agricultural landscapes being replaced by a fragmented, sprawled landscape. Spatially detailed modelling of changes in land use, population and transport could help to forecast the impact of scenarios aimed at mitigating the process of urban sprawl. A common problem with land-use change models however, is the lack of historical data for proper model calibration. In this paper we describe an approach for developing historical population density maps by downdating a recent high-resolution population density raster, using a time series of sealed surface data and historical census data as an input. In the proposed approach, we hypothesise a local relationship between increasing population densities and increasing sealed surface fraction estimates, the latter obtained from remote sensing imagery. We apply the method to Flanders, Belgium, a region where population growth and improved transport networks led to a diffuse urban expansion, with ribbon development along many roads and a strong fragmentation of open space. The resulting population and sealed surface maps provide interesting data on the urban sprawl phenomenon in the past decades. By computing a densification index we observe that most urban areas witness a recent population density increase while in several rural areas the built-up area per inhabitant is still growing. The downdated time series of population maps obtained in this study will be used to set up a historical calibration for an activity-based cellular automata model for Flanders and Brussels which, among other data, needs high-resolution population maps. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.