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作者

来源

JOURNAL OF REAL ESTATE FINANCE AND ECONOMICS,Vol.55,Issue3,P.288-312

语言

英文

关键字

Home purchase restriction; Housing market; Chinese housing policy; Beijing; CAPITALIZATION; CHINA

作者单位

[Sun, Weizeng] Jinan Univ, Inst Econ & Social Res, Guangzhou 510632, Guangdong, Peoples R China. [Sun, Weizeng; Zheng, Siqi] Tsinghua Univ, Hang Lung Ctr Real Estate, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China. [Sun, Weizeng; Zheng, Siqi] Tsinghua Univ, Dept Construct Management, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China. [Zheng, Siqi; Geltner, David M.] MIT, Ctr Real Estate, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA. [Geltner, David M.] MIT, Dept Urban Studies & Planning, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA. [Wang, Rui] UCLA, Luskin Sch Publ Affairs, 3250 Public Policy Bldg,Box 951656, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA. [Wang, Rui] Johns Hopkins Univ, Sch Adv Int Studies, Washington, DC 20036 USA. Wang, R (reprint author), UCLA, Luskin Sch Publ Affairs, 3250 Public Policy Bldg,Box 951656, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA.; Wang, R (reprint author), Johns Hopkins Univ, Sch Adv Int Studies, Washington, DC 20036 USA. E-Mail: sunweizeng@gmail.com; zhengsiqi@gmail.com; dgeltner@mit.edu; ruiwang@ucla.edu

摘要

Home prices have surged in major Chinese cities, leading to concerns of asset price bubbles and housing affordability. The policy of home purchase restrictions (HPR) has been one of China's harshest housing market interventions to squeeze out speculative demand and dampen the soaring home prices. Beijing was the first city to implement the HPR. Employing the regression discontinuity design technique, we find that Beijing's HPR policy triggered a 17-24 % decrease in resale price, a drop in the price-to-rent ratio of about a quarter of its mean value, and a deep (1/2 to 3/4) reduction in the transaction volume of the for-sale market, with no significant change in the rent or the transaction volume of rental units. In submarkets where housing supply was less elastic, the effects of the HPR were larger in price and smaller in quantity, suggesting that wealthy buyers likely benefited more from the HPR. The scope of the analysis does not allow conclusions regarding the persistence or longevity of these effects.