打印

作者

来源

EUROPEAN PLANNING STUDIES,Vol.25,Issue10,P.1797-1817

语言

英文

关键字

Compact city; land use; spatial analysis; urban sprawl; Mediterranean city; LAND-COVER CHANGES; EUROPEAN CITIES; ENVIRONMENTAL-IMPACT; REGIONAL FORESIGHT; CELLULAR-AUTOMATA; SCENARIOS; SPRAWL; BARCELONA; EXPANSION; MODEL

作者单位

[Zambon, Ilaria] Tuscia Univ, Dept Agr & Forestry Sci DAFNE, Viterbo, Italy. [Serra, Pere] Univ Autonoma Barcelona, Dept Geog, Grumets Res Grp, Edifici B,Campus UAB, ES-08193 Cerdanyola Del Valles, Barcelona, Spain. [Bencardino, Massimiliano] Univ Salerno, Dept Polit Social & Commun Sci, Fisciano, Italy. [Carlucci, Margherita] Sapienza Univ Rome, Dept Social & Econ Sci, Rome, Italy. [Salvati, Luca] Council Agr Res & Econ CREA, Rome, Italy. Serra, P (reprint author), Univ Autonoma Barcelona, Dept Geog, Grumets Res Grp, Edifici B,Campus UAB, ES-08193 Cerdanyola Del Valles, Barcelona, Spain. E-Mail: pere.serra@uab.cat

摘要

This study undertook a quantitative analysis of town master plans to define future urban growth. Spatial direction and intensity of urban expansion were analysed in relation to local contexts using land zoning and a comprehensive database of socio-economic indicators at the municipal scale in Catalonia, Spain. Our results illustrate a progressive shift towards discontinuous settlements consolidating urban centres in most accessible rural areas. Contrary to what was hypothesized (and partly observed) in recent decades, settlement expansion will modestly contribute to a balanced urban spatial structure. Future urban development in Catalonia will not follow a polycentric model, fuelling instead the growth of medium and small urban centres. This process may consolidate the incipient divide in rural areas with high accessibility and a dynamic economic base with remote inland areas experiencing land abandonment and depopulation. The use of indicators derived from town master plans in the assessment of (scattered or polycentric) future urbanization in Europe is finally discussed.