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作者

Gavin A. Wood;Rachel Ong;Melek Cigdem

来源

URBAN POLICY AND RESEARCH,Vol.38,Issue1,P.3-17

语言

英文

关键字

Housing assistance,home ownership,private rental,older Australians,ageing

作者单位

Centre for Urban Research, RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia

摘要

This paper combines forecasts of Australia’s population with microsimulation and tenure choice models to generate estimates of housing assistance demand from older Australians in 2031. Our projections suggest that singles retreat from home ownership, while rental tenures become increasingly feminised by 2031 as they turn into the tenures of (constrained) choice for a growing proportion of singles and sole parents. Even if home ownership declines by a modest 5 percentage points, real government expenditure on Commonwealth Rent Assistance for Australians aged 55 years and over in 2031 is projected to be more than three times its level in 2011.本文将澳大利亚人口预测与微观模拟和居住选择模型相结合，以生成2031年澳大利亚老年人住房援助需求的估计. 我们的预测显示，到2031年，单身人士将不再拥有住房，而租房的女性比例将越来越高，因为越来越多的单身人士和单亲父母将把租房变成(受限制的)选择. 即使住房拥有率小幅下降5个百分点，到2031年，联邦政府为55岁及以上的澳大利亚人提供的租房补贴的实际支出预计将是2011年的三倍多.KEYWORDS: Housing assistance, home ownership, private rental, older Australians, ageingDisclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.Additional informationFundingThis work was supported by the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute [53039].