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作者

来源

JOURNAL OF URBAN PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT,Vol.143,Issue040170083

语言

英文

关键字

LAND-USE CHANGE; COVER

作者单位

[Abiodun, Oludayo Emmanuel; Olaleye, James Bola; Olusina, Joseph Olalekan; Omogunloye, Olushola Gabriel] Univ Lagos, Dept Surveying & Geoinformat, Lagos 100213, Nigeria. Abiodun, OE (reprint author), Univ Lagos, Dept Surveying & Geoinformat, Lagos 100213, Nigeria. E-Mail: oabiodun@unilag.edu.ng

摘要

Detecting changes that have occurred in an area, identifying drivers of expansion, and the ability to predict future changes in expansion are important for long-term planning. Lagos (Nigeria) has experienced rapid expansion and many factors can be offered to contribute to its sprawling. The aim of this study is to develop a multivariate model for urban expansion in Greater Lagos for which a set of 14 drivers of expansion is considered in a multinucleic structure. The study area was partitioned into 25 regular cells of 20 x 25 km each. A sequence of images of the study area for 1984, 2001, 2006, and 2013 was acquired and processed into six land-use classes. Empirical data for the evaluation of each driver were acquired from relevant government agencies and through a field survey. Coefficients of the multicriteria model were derived using a stepwise linear regression analysis. The effectiveness of each driver was tested at a significant level of alpha = 0.05. Predicted results suggest that urban expansion will increase by 56% in 2030. The observed rate of expansion may form the basis for a new policy on land reform in Lagos. (C) 2017 American Society of Civil Engineers.