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作者

来源

JOURNAL OF URBAN PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT,Vol.144,Issue1

语言

英文

关键字

Urban morphogenesis; Genetic algorithms; Evolutionary computation; Minato Ward; Tokyo; Skyscrapers; CELLULAR-AUTOMATON MODEL; SAN-FRANCISCO; GIS; SELECTION

作者单位

[Perez, Rafael Ivan Pazos] Nihon Sekkei Inc, Mitsui Bldg,2-1-1 Nishi Shinjuku, Tokyo 1630430, Japan. [Carballal, Adrian; Mures, Omar A.] Univ A Coruna, Dept Informat & Commun Technol, Fac Comp Sci, La Coruna 15071, Spain. [Rabunal, Juan R.] Univ A Coruna, Ctr Technol Innovat Construct & Civil Engn, La Coruna 15071, Spain. [Garcia-Vidaurrazaga, Maria D.] Univ A Coruna, Dept Construct Technol, Univ Coll Tech Architecture, La Coruna 15071, Spain. Perez, RIP (reprint author), Nihon Sekkei Inc, Mitsui Bldg,2-1-1 Nishi Shinjuku, Tokyo 1630430, Japan. E-Mail: ivanpazosperez@hotmail.com

摘要

This article explores the use of evolutionary genetic algorithms to predict scenarios of urban vertical growth in large urban centers. Tokyo's Minato Ward is used as a case study because it has been one of the fastest growing skylines over the last 20years. This study uses a genetic algorithm that simulates the vertical urban growth of Minato Ward to make predictions from pre-established inputted parameters. The algorithm estimates not only the number of future high-rise buildings but also the specific areas in the ward that are more likely to accommodate new high-rise developments in the future. The evolutionary model results are compared with ongoing high-rise developments in order to evaluate the accuracy of the genetic algorithm in simulating future vertical urban growth. The results of this study show that the use of genetic evolutionary computation is a promising way to predict scenarios of vertical urban growth in terms of location as well as the number of future buildings.