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作者

来源

INTERNATIONAL REGIONAL SCIENCE REVIEW,Vol.41,Issue2SI,P.256-281

语言

英文

关键字

extended input-output models; regional decline; impact analysis; ACTIVITY COMMODITY FRAMEWORK

作者单位

[Batey, Peter W. J.] Univ Liverpool, Dept Geog & Planning, 74 Bedford St South, Liverpool L69 7ZQ, Merseyside, England. Batey, PWJ (reprint author), Univ Liverpool, Dept Geog & Planning, 74 Bedford St South, Liverpool L69 7ZQ, Merseyside, England. E-Mail: pwjbatey@liv.ac.uk

摘要

The aim of this article is to demonstrate how a particular modeling framework, based on extended input-output analysis, can be used to obtain a clearer understanding of the impact of regional decline of the effects of high, and rising, unemployment; of falling industrial final demand; of welfare payments; and of declining population. The activity-commodity framework used here provides a systematic way of adding demographic variables to the familiar Leontief interindustry model and the extended inverse derived from it provides a rich source of information about the interaction of demographic and economic change, expressed as demographic-economic and economic-demographic multipliers. Drawing on the author's research in the 1980s and 1990s, this article considers two empirical examples to show the framework's analytical value: a simple extended model is used to assess the distributional effects of welfare payments in a declining region; and a more elaborate version is linked to a set of regional labor market accounts, summarizing intercensal change in population and employment. This model is used to produce a comprehensive assessment of the effects of population and employment change in two UK regions, one a growing region (East Anglia) and the other a region in decline (Merseyside). In a final section, the benefits and limitations of the extended input-output modeling framework are discussed in comparison with some of the alternative modeling frameworks that are currently available.