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作者

来源

JOURNAL OF URBAN PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT,Vol.144,Issue2

语言

英文

关键字

Ecosystem service value; Land-use change; Land-use structure optimization; Gray forecasting model; Taiyuan; China; HANGZHOU METROPOLITAN-AREA; USE/LAND-COVER CHANGE; DECISION-MAKING; SOCIOECONOMIC-DEVELOPMENT; COASTAL JIANGSU; CLIMATE-CHANGE; UNITED-STATE

作者单位

[Xue, Minggao; Ma, Shuhua] Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Management, Luoyu Rd 1037, Wuhan 430074, Peoples R China. Ma, SH (reprint author), Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Management, Luoyu Rd 1037, Wuhan 430074, Peoples R China. E-Mail: xmgwt@hust.edu.cn; d201577814@hust.edu.cn

摘要

Evaluating the variations of ecosystem services in response to land-use change is recognized as an effective method in supporting policy making involved in land-use management and environment protection. Using the gray forecasting models, this study predicts the land-use change from 2014 to 2020 in Taiyuan, China, and establishes a linear programming model to optimize the land-use structure for 2020 to maximize the total ecosystem services value (ESV). Then the study compares the difference between the government's land-use planning and the optimized land-use structure and evaluates their effects on ESV. The results show that the areas of woodland and built-up land will keep growing from 2014 to 2020, whereas cropland, orchard, grassland, and water body will decrease continuously. The total ESV is 15,482.95 million renminbi (RMB; the official currency of China) in the government's land-use planning and 15,570.24 million RMB in optimized land-use structure, an increase of 87.29 million RMB. Moreover, compared with the government's land-use planning, the ESV of all ecosystem services, except food production and raw materials, have varying degrees of increase in optimized land-use structure. These demonstrate that the optimized land-use structure is an effective land-use scheme that is worthy of consideration and is a reference for land managers and policy makers. In addition, this case study may provide valuable information to other cities in China. (C) 2018 American Society of Civil Engineers.