Understanding urban shrinkage in China: Developing a multi-dimensional conceptual model and conducting empirical examination from 2000 to 2010

《Understanding urban shrinkage in China: Developing a multi-dimensional conceptual model and conducting empirical examination from 2000 to 2010》

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关键字: Shrinking cities;Demographic change;Economic decline;Urban shrinkage;Migration;China

作者单位: Institute of Geographic Sciences and Nature Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100101, China;Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, CAS, Beijing, 100101, China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China;Department of City and Regional Planning, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, 27599-3140, USA;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Nature Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100101, China;Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, CAS, Beijing, 100101, China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China;Department of City and Regional Planning, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, 27599-3140, USA

摘要: Many studies have explored the phenomenon of urban shrinkage in Chinese cities by examining the recent changes in the urban population. However, population change on its own may not capture the various aspects of urban shrinkage. Therefore, in this study, we built a multi-dimensional conceptual model involving demographic, economic, and social aspects to explore the varied urban development processes in China, and then conducted empirical studies in 269 prefecture-level cities from 2000 to 2010. We found that, although an approximate 12% of the cities in the sample experienced urban shrinkage along multiple dimensions, about 20% of the cities experienced population decline combined with economic growth and positive social development. The diverse urban development processes are closely related to the interplay of the central government's macro-regional development policies and the different local contexts. These findings suggest that researchers reconsider how they understand the urban population decline in Chinese cities and that the central government pay attention to the effects of current regional policies on urban development.