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作者

Jeffrey P. Cohen;Jeffrey Zabel

来源

REAL ESTATE ECONOMICS,Vol.48,Issue3,P.710-743

语言

英文

关键字

作者单位

E-mail address: Jeffrey.Cohen@business.uconn.edu Department of Finance and Center for Real Estate, University of Connecticut, 2100 Hillside Road, Unit 1041‐RE, Storrs, CT 06269 E-mail address: Jeffrey.Cohen@business.uconn.edu, E-mail address: jeff.zabel@tufts.edu;E-mail address: jeff.zabel@tufts.edu Economics Department, Tufts University, Medford, MA 02465 E-mail address: Jeffrey.Cohen@business.uconn.edu, E-mail address: jeff.zabel@tufts.edu

摘要

We contribute to the literature on house price diffusion by carrying out our analysis at three levels: CBSA (nationwide), town and census tract (Greater Boston Area). We estimate fixed‐effect models of house price growth on lagged growth (“Persistence”), nearby lagged growth (“Spillovers”) and Fundamentals growth. CBSA‐level Persistence and Spillover Effects are positive and significant. These large ripple/contagion effects likely contributed to the recent national‐level housing downturn. We find evidence of smaller town‐level Persistence and Spillover Effects. Hence, diffusion appears stronger across than within housing markets. Fundamentals and price expectations drive price diffusion, leaving room for bubbles from future price overoptimism.