Identifying High-risk Areas of Foot-and-mouth Disease Outbreak Using a Spatiotemporal Score StatisticA Case of South Korea

《Identifying High-risk Areas of Foot-and-mouth Disease Outbreak Using a Spatiotemporal Score StatisticA Case of South Korea》

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作者单位: 1Department of Veterinary Clinical Pathology and Epidemiology, College of Veterinary Medicine, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon, Republic of Korea;2Department of Urban and Transportation Engineering, Korea National University of Transportation, Chungju, Republic of Korea;3Department of Urban and Regional Planning, School of Architecture and Planning, The State University of New York at Buffalo, NY, USA;4Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Seoul National University, South Korea

摘要: The objective of this study is to identify high-risk areas of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in South Korea using nationwide data collected for the disease cases that occurred during the period from December 2014 to April 2015. High-risk areas of FMD occurrence are defined as local clusters or hot spots, where the frequency of disease occurrence is higher than expected. An issue in the FMD detection study is in identifying a spatial pattern deviated significantly from the expected value under the null hypothesis that no spatial process is investigated. While identifying geographic clusters is challenging to reveal the causes of disease outbreak, it is most useful to detect and monitor potential areas of risk occurrence and suggest a further in-depth investigation. This study extended a traditional score statistic (SC) that has limited to identify the spatial pattern by proposing a spatiotemporal score statistic (STSC) that incorporates a temporal component into the SC approach. STSC, a local spatial statistic, was utilized to detect clusters around the known foci with a latent period. This study demonstrated STSC could better exploit the advantage of the original SC and improve the cluster detection due to the latent time component. The empirical results of STSC are expected to provide more useful policy implications with agencies in charge of preventing and controlling the spread of epidemics when deciding where to concentrate the limited resources available.