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作者

来源

JOURNAL OF URBAN ECONOMICS,Vol.106,P.59-80

语言

英文

关键字

Revenue uncertainty; Revenue forecasting; Student achievement; STATE AID; ECONOMIC-CONDITIONS; SCHOOL-FINANCE; TAX; RESPONSES; ACHIEVEMENT; RECESSION; FORECASTS; IMPACTS; QUALITY

作者单位

[Lavertu, Stephane] Ohio State Univ, John Glenn Coll Publ Affairs, 1810 Coll Rd,110 Page Hall, Columbus, OH 43210 USA. [St Clair, Travis] NYU, Wagner Sch Publ Serv, 295 Lafayette St, New York, NY 10012 USA. Lavertu, S (reprint author), Ohio State Univ, John Glenn Coll Publ Affairs, 1810 Coll Rd,110 Page Hall, Columbus, OH 43210 USA. E-Mail: lavertu.1@osu.edu; mts15@nyu.edu

摘要

Revenue uncertainty is a common concern among public administrators, but little research examines its effects on service delivery. Using a novel empirical strategy to capture how revenues deviate from administrators' expectations, we estimate the impact of revenue uncertainty on Ohio public school districts' educational effectiveness. We find that errors in districts' revenue forecasts can have a significant negative impact on student achievement, beyond what one would expect based on changes in spending levels. In particular, a one percentage point increase in error involving revenue shortfalls can lead to declines in student achievement growth of up to 0.02 standard deviations during the following school year, which equates to about 8 days' worth of learning. These effects are concentrated in large, non-rural school districts with relatively low fund balances.