Can monetary policy revive the housing market in a crisis? Evidence from high-resolution data on Norwegian transactions

《Can monetary policy revive the housing market in a crisis? Evidence from high-resolution data on Norwegian transactions》

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关键字: Interrupted time series; Housing market; Monetary policy reversal; PRICE

作者单位: [Larsen, Erling Roed] Eiendomsverdi & BI Norwegian Business Sch, Oslo, Norway. Larsen, ER (reprint author), Eiendomsverdi & BI Norwegian Business Sch, Oslo, Norway. E-Mail: erling.roed.larsen@eiendomsverdi.no

摘要: Studying a Norwegian high-resolution housing transaction data set, this article examines the link between the monetary policy reversal and the housing market upswing in the fall of 2008. I construct a hedonic time dummy price index and track changes over short time periods in order to inspect interruptions and turning-points. To control for seasonal effects, I compare price differences in 2008 with differences in years before and after. The evidence shows the existence of a pronounced house price index turn-around immediately after the monetary policy reversal was initiated. Plausible transmission mechanisms are established. Alternative exogenous causal factors are ruled out or appear implausible. An endogenous explanation is shown to be unlikely. The evidence thus suggests that the monetary policy reversal played a significant role in the housing market recovery.