Multiple scenario simulations of land use changes and countermeasures for collaborative development mode in Chaobai River region of Jing-Jin-Ji, China

《Multiple scenario simulations of land use changes and countermeasures for collaborative development mode in Chaobai River region of Jing-Jin-Ji, China》

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来源: HABITAT INTERNATIONAL,Vol.82,P.38-47

语言: 英文

关键字: Land use; Driving force; Land management; Collaborative development; Countermeasure; Jing-Jin-Ji; URBANIZATION

作者单位: [Sheng, Xiaowen; Cao, Yingui; Zhou, Wei; Song, Lei] China Univ Geosci, Sch Land Sci & Technol, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China. [Cao, Yingui; Zhou, Wei] Minist Land & Resources PR China, Key Lab Land Consolidat, Beijing 100035, Peoples R China. [Zhang, Hui] China Land Surveying & Planning Inst, Beijing 100035, Peoples R China. Cao, YG (reprint author), China Univ Geosci, Sch Land Sci & Technol, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China. E-Mail: caoyingui@cugb.edu.cn

摘要: With the promotion of collaborative development strategies in Beijing City, Tianjin City, and Hebei Province (Jing-Jin-Ji), the Chaobai River region, bordering Beijing City, Tianjin City, and Hebei Province will surely become a microcosm of collaborative development. Due to the lack of reasonable land use planning, the contradiction between limited land resources and the ever-increasing demand of land use has become increasingly prominent. In this paper, we used the Chaobai River region as the study area, analyzed land use changes from 2000 to 2015, and adopted system dynamics (SD) model to simulate land use changes under multiple scenarios. The results are as follows. (1) During the period from 2000 to 2015, the area of the Chaobai River was dominated by cultivated land and construction land. The cultivated land, grassland, water area and unused land showed a decreasing trend, which decreased by 9.72%, 3.56%, 0.62% and 2.67% respectively. Woodland and construction land showed an increasing trend, increasing by 4.35% and 12.22% respectively. (2) Compared with the continuation of the status quo mode, that is, the economic development and ecology protection priority modes, a collaborative development mode can effectively control the growth rate of new construction land, alleviate the reduction in cultivated land, and protect land ecology. (3) According to the development status of the study area and future scenario simulation predictions, some measures were proposed for the collaborative management of land use in the Chaobai River region from the aspects of population flow and ecological land protection. This research can provide reference to the reasonable land use and collaborative development in Jing-Jin-Ji.