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作者

来源

JOURNAL OF REAL ESTATE FINANCE AND ECONOMICS,Vol.58,Issue3,P.457-488

语言

英文

关键字

Housing starts; Forecasts; Survey data; Directional accuracy; ROC techniques; INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE; ROC ANALYSIS; MARKET; PRICES; LONG; CURVES; MODELS; CREDIT; AREAS

作者单位

[Meyer, Tim] Helmut Schmidt Univ, Dept Econ, POB 700822, D-22008 Hamburg, Germany. Meyer, T (reprint author), Helmut Schmidt Univ, Dept Econ, POB 700822, D-22008 Hamburg, Germany. E-Mail: tim.meyer@hsu-hh.de

摘要

I use data from both the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the Livingston Survey to study the directional accuracy of United States housing starts forecasts. Using elements of relative operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, I find that forecasts contain information with respect to subsequent changes in housing starts. Estimates for both surveys are significant at all forecast horizons and robust across time and across forecasters. Implications for the usage of housing starts forecasts from survey data are discussed.