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作者

来源

REAL ESTATE ECONOMICS,Vol.47,Issue2,P.534-563

语言

英文

关键字

FUNDAMENTALS; EXUBERANCE; MARKETS

作者单位

[Bourassa, Steven C.] Florida Atlantic Univ, Sch Urban & Reg Planning, 777 Glades Rd, Boca Raton, FL 33431 USA. [Bourassa, Steven C.] Florida Atlantic Univ, Sch Publ Adm, 777 Glades Rd, Boca Raton, FL 33431 USA. [Hoesli, Martin] Univ Geneva, Geneva Sch Econ & Management, 40 Blvd Pont dArve, CH-1211 Geneva 4, Switzerland. [Hoesli, Martin] Univ Geneva, Swiss Finance Inst, 40 Blvd Pont dArve, CH-1211 Geneva 4, Switzerland. [Hoesli, Martin] Univ Aberdeen, Business Sch, Edward Wright Bldg,Dunbar St, Old Aberdeen AB24 3QY, Scotland. [Hoesli, Martin] Kedge Business Sch, 680 Cours Liberat, F-33400 Talence, France. [Oikarinen, Elias] Univ Turku, Sch Econ, Rehtorinpellonkatu 3, FI-20500 Turku, Finland. Bourassa, SC (reprint author), Florida Atlantic Univ, Sch Urban & Reg Planning, 777 Glades Rd, Boca Raton, FL 33431 USA.; Bourassa, SC (reprint author), Florida Atlantic Univ, Sch Publ Adm, 777 Glades Rd, Boca Raton, FL 33431 USA. E-Mail: sbourassa@fau.edu; martin.hoesli@unige.ch; elias.oikarinen@utu.fi

摘要

Using data for six metropolitan housing markets in three countries, this article provides a comparison of methods used to measure house price bubbles. We use an asset pricing approach to identify bubble periods retrospectively and then compare those results with results produced by six other methods. We also apply the various methods recursively to assess their ability to identify bubbles as they form. In view of the complexity of the asset pricing approach, we conclude that a simple price-rent ratio measure is a reliable method both ex post and in real time. Our results have important policy implications because a reliable signal that a bubble is forming could be used to avoid further house price increases.