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作者

来源

来源 JOURNAL OF URBAN ECONOMICS,Vol.76,P.93-109

语言

英文

关键字

R21;J11;D10;Housing demand;Business cycle;Household formation

作者单位

National University of Singapore, 4 Architecture Drive, Singapore 117566, Singapore;USC Sol Price School of Public Policy, 331 Lewis Hall, Los Angeles 90089, United States;National University of Singapore, 4 Architecture Drive, Singapore 117566, Singapore;USC Sol Price School of Public Policy, 331 Lewis Hall, Los Angeles 90089, United States

摘要

While many studies have investigated the determinants of housing demand, very few studies have focused on how economic conditions affect the formation of potential households directly. Potential households may choose to delay entry into the housing market by remaining with one’s parents during times of economic hardship or by combining with other persons to share housing costs. Using a variety of modeling approaches, we find that both the increase in the unemployment rate and the presence of recessions reduce the rate of household formation. Simulations suggest that these declines are substantively important. For example, in a recession, the likelihood that a young adult will form an independent household falls by 1–9% points depending on the age of the person. By way of comparison, if an individual is unemployed, the likelihood of leaving the parental home is up to 11% points lower.