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作者

来源

来源 JOURNAL OF URBAN ECONOMICS,Vol.68,P.336-351

语言

英文

关键字

C32;E32;R11;Markov switching;Time varying transition probabilities;Leading indicator;Recession

作者单位

Dept. of Real Estate, Zicklin School of Business, Baruch College/CUNY, NY 10010, United States"}]},{"#name":"affiliation","$":{"id":"aff2;Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, P.O. Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442, United States"}]},{"#name":"correspondence","$":{"id":"cor1;Dept. of Real Estate, Zicklin School of Business, Baruch College/CUNY, NY 10010, United States"}]},"aff2":{"#name":"affiliation","$":{"id":"aff2;Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, P.O. Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442, United States"}]}},"correspondences":{"cor1":{"#name":"correspondence","$":{"id":"cor1

摘要

In a recent paper, Leamer (2007) identified housing as an important precursor of the national business cycle. Previous work, on the other hand, has shown that regional cycles may not be synchronous with the aggregate cycle. In this paper, we analyze the relationship between housing and the business cycle at the MSA-level for a set of 51 US cities. We find that declines in house prices are often not followed by declines in that city’s employment. While the growth rates in housing variables appeared to slow ahead of city-level peaks, we find no consistent statistical relationship suggesting a city’s permits or prices influences its business cycle. In fact, we find that national permits are a better leading indicator for a city’s employment than a city’s own permits. This suggest the possibility that housing is merely a proxy for other consumption or wealth indicators.