《Can the Consumption–Wealth Ratio Predict Housing Returns? Evidence from OECD Countries》

打印
作者
Guglielmo Maria Caporale;Ricardo M. Sousa;Mark E. Wohar
来源
REAL ESTATE ECONOMICS,Vol.47,Issue4,P.935-976
语言
英文
关键字
作者单位
Department of Economics and Finance, Brunel University London;Department of Economics and Economic Policies Research Unit (NIPE), University of Minho and LSE Alumni Association, London School of Economics and Political Science;College of Business Administration, University of Nebraska at Omaha and Department of Economics, Loughborough University
摘要
We use a representative consumer model to analyze the relation between the transitory deviations of consumption from its common trend with aggregate wealth and labor income, cay, and the housing risk premium. The evidence based on data for 15 OECD countries shows that, if financial and housing assets are seen as complements, investors will temporarily allow consumption to rise when they expect a rise in future housing returns. By contrast, if housing assets are treated as substitutes for financial assets, consumption will be reduced.