打印

作者

Yahan Lu;Wei Song;Qianqian Lyu

来源

HABITAT INTERNATIONAL,Vol.127,P.102622

语言

英文

关键字

作者单位

Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, PR China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, PR China;National Science Library, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, PR China;Department of Library Information and Archives Management, School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, PR China;Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, PR China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, PR China;National Science Library, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, PR China;Department of Library Information and Archives Management, School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, PR China;School of Design, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, PR China;Shanghai Key Laboratory of Urban Renewal and Spatial Optimization Technology, PR China;International Research Center for Architectural Heritage Conservation, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, PR China;Center for Real Estate Studying, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China;Department of Civil Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China;Ningbo Urban Construction Investment Holding Company Limited, China;The Hongkong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China;School of the Built Environment, Kyambogo University, P.O. Box 1, Kampala, Uganda;Institute of Human Settlements Studies, Ardhi University, P. O. Box 35124, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania;Department of Architecture, School of Design and Environment, National University of Singapore, 4 Architecture Drive, Singapore;Urban and Regional Planning Department, University of Colorado Denver, CO, USA;Department of Geography & Earth Sciences, College of Liberal Arts & Sciences, The University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC, USA;College of Arts and Architecture, The Pennsylvania State University, State College, Pennsylvania, USA;Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Nigeria, Enugu Campus, Enugu, Nigeria;Department of Geoinformatics and Surveying, University of Nigeria, Enugu Campus, Enugu, Nigeria;Department of Management, University of Nigeria, Enugu Campus, Enugu, Nigeria;School of Public Affairs Zhejiang University, Zhejiang, China;Department of Building and Real Estate, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China

摘要

Urbanization is an inevitable trend of modernization. In recent years, the Chinese government has proposed a new urbanization policy to accelerate the citizenization of the migrant agricultural population. The proposal of China's new urbanization strategy will inevitably cause the large-scale migration of China's urban and rural population, thus impacting the evolution patterns of China's rural settlements. To investigate the future evolution trends of rural settlement patterns against the background of new-type urbanization, we constructed a rural settlement multi-agent system (RSMAS) that can explicitly simulate the influences of government policies. In the model, we set four types of agents, including urban area, rural area, government, and peasant household. Through top-down control and bottom-up response, the model can reveal the mutual gaming relationships, influencing relationships, and feedback relationships among agents against the background of new-type urbanization. Taking Jizhou District of Tianjin, which is one of the first pilot areas of new-type urbanization, as an example, we first simulated the changes of rural settlement patterns in Jizhou District from 2005 to 2015 using the RSMAS. The accuracy of the model simulation was 60.96%, indicating that the model has good reliability. Second, we predicted the impact of the new-type urbanization policy on the rural settlement patterns in Jizhou District in 2030, using 2015 as the starting year. The household registration system is no longer the key constraint to urbanization. The trend of the expansion of rural settlements has been effectively curbed after the implementation of new urbanization. In addition, government-led urbanization processes would increase the local financial burden. Therefore, we suggest that the government should effectively control these processes, activate the rural financial market, and promote the participation of local state-owned enterprises in financing.