Assessment of the flood mitigation ecosystem service in a coastal wetland and potential impact of future urban development in Chile

《Assessment of the flood mitigation ecosystem service in a coastal wetland and potential impact of future urban development in Chile》

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作者: Octavio Rojas;Evelyn Soto;Carolina Rojas;J. Javier López

来源: HABITAT INTERNATIONAL,Vol.123,P.102554

语言: 英文

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作者单位: Departamento de Planificación Territorial y Sistemas Urbanos, Facultad de Ciencias Ambientales y Centro Eula-Chile, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile;Instituto de Estudios Urbanos y Territoriales, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Centro de Desarrollo Urbano Sustentable CEDEUS, El Comendador, 1916, Providencia, Chile;Departamento de Ingeniería, Universidad Pública de Navarra, Pamplona, Spain;Departamento de Planificación Territorial y Sistemas Urbanos, Facultad de Ciencias Ambientales y Centro Eula-Chile, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile;Instituto de Estudios Urbanos y Territoriales, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Centro de Desarrollo Urbano Sustentable CEDEUS, El Comendador, 1916, Providencia, Chile;Departamento de Ingeniería, Universidad Pública de Navarra, Pamplona, Spain;School of Management, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou, 510006, China;Department of Urban Studies, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UK;Department of Building and Real Estate, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong;School of Applied Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing, 100872, China;Department of Geography, Architecture, Urbanism and Geography Faculty, University of Concepción, Victor Lamas 1290 Casilla 160-C, Concepción, Chile"}]},{"#name":"affiliation","$":{"id":"aff2;CREAF (Center for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications), Autonomous University of Barcelona, E-08193 Bellaterra, Spain"}]},{"#name":"correspondence","$":{"id":"cor1;Center for Real Estate Studying, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China;Department of Civil Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China;Ningbo Urban Construction Investment Holding Company Limited, China;The Hongkong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China;Department of Public Policy, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong;The State Key Laboratory of Marine Pollution (SKLMP) and Department of Public Policy, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China;Shenzhen Research Institute, City University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, 518057, China;College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing, 100193, China;Key Laboratory for Agricultural Land Quality, Monitoring and Control, Ministry of Natural Resources, Beijing, 100193, China;College of Public Administration, Central China Normal University, Wuhan, 430079, China;State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100094, China;School of Architecture, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China

摘要: A worldwide increase in flooding due to climate change and population growth in exposed areas is expected, especially in coastal areas; therefore, nature-based solutions (NBS) for risk reduction are necessary to increase the resilience of cities, particularly in developing countries, which usually lack large budgets for structural measures but have natural areas such as wetlands that can be used as NBS. The flood mitigation ecosystem service of a coastal wetland in central Chile was analyzed. Using hydrological and topo-bathymetric data, two flood hazard scenarios were modeled: (i) S1 current and (ii) S2 projected, which was established based on land-use planning instruments and urban projects developed since 1954. Flood hazard maps for different return periods were obtained and indicators related to the mitigation potential of the wetland were calculated. It was proven that urban project development has intensified since 2000, mainly in the form of real estate development, with an increase in occupation of 50%, and the wetland area is projected to be further reduced by around one third, decreasing potential flood mitigation. Thus, for an extreme return period, in this case 500 years, the water volume stored by the wetland would decrease by more than 38% and the flooded area of the wetland by 30%, increasing flooding and vulnerability of the urban area, with various repercussions for surrounding neighborhoods and infrastructure. The number of people and homes affected would increase by around 6% and 8%, respectively, such that the affected land value would reach an additional US$55 million, which would be very detrimental in a city that has seen its natural spaces encroached upon by gray infrastructure. This research reaffirms the need to support the restoration and conservation of coastal wetlands under pressure from urban development in an area with a lack of green infrastructure planning.