Why are cities less opposed to European integration than rural areas? Factors affecting the Eurosceptic vote by degree of urbanization

《Why are cities less opposed to European integration than rural areas? Factors affecting the Eurosceptic vote by degree of urbanization》

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作者: Laura de Dominicis;Lewis Dijkstra;Nicola Pontarollo

来源: CITIES,Vol.130,Issue1,Article 103937

语言: 英文

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作者单位: European Commission, Directorate-General for Regional and Urban Policy, Brussels, Belgium;Department of Economics and Management, University of Brescia, Brescia, Italy;European Commission, Directorate-General for Regional and Urban Policy, Brussels, Belgium;Department of Economics and Management, University of Brescia, Brescia, Italy;Dipartimento di Informatica, Università di Torino, Italy;CIRMA, Università di Torino, Italy;NoReal, Italy;DIEc, Department of Economics, University of Genoa, Italy;DIBRIS, Department of Bioengineering, Robotics, Communication, and System Science, University of Genoa, Italy;CIELI, Italian Center of Excellence on Integrated Logistics, University of Genoa, Italy;Department of History, University of British Columbia, 1873 East Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T1Z1, Canada;Institut Necker-Enfants Malades, INSERM U1151-CNRS UMR 8253, Faculté de Médecine Paris Descartes, Université Paris Descartes, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Paris, France;Institut Jacques Monod, CNRS UMR 7592, Université Paris Diderot, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Paris, France;Department of Pharmacology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA;Institut Gustave Roussy, CNRS UMR 8200, Villejuif, and Université Paris-Sud, Orsay, France;New York University, Department of Psychology and Center for Neural Science, New York, NY, United States;Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden;Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States;Lehigh University, Bethlehem, PA, United States;Semeion Research Center, Via Sersale 117, 00128 Rome, Italy;Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, University of Colorado, 1250 14th Street, Denver, CO 80217-3364 USA;Department of Humanities, IULM University, Via Carlo Bo, 1, 20143 Milan, Italy;Department of Romance Languages and Literatures, Harvard University, Boylston Hall, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA;metaLAB (at) Harvard, 42 Kirkland Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA;FBK-IRVAPP, Via Santa Croce 77, 38122 Trento, Italy

摘要: In recent years, protest voting, voting for populist parties and, specifically for Europe, votes for parties opposed to European integration, have increased substantially. This has focused the attention of researchers and policy makers on the causes behind this trend. Most of the existing research looked at voters' characteristics, mainly values, education and age, or economic insecurity, such as rising unemployment or a declining economy more in general. This paper focuses instead on the urban-rural divide in anti-EU sentiment, and tries to explain why cities – and urban areas in general - in Europe tend to vote less for Eurosceptic parties. Using electoral data for national elections at the electoral district level for the years 2013–2018 and political parties' orientation as assessed by the Chapel Hill Expert Survey, we find robust statistical evidence of a lower anti-EU vote in cities, towns and suburbs than in rural areas. We also find that drivers of voting for anti-EU parties differ significantly between urban and rural areas in the EU and UK, despite some similarities. We show that three factors are associated to a higher anti-EU vote in all areas: growth in unemployment, a low turnout and a higher share of people born outside the EU. A sluggish economy is associated to a higher anti-EU sentiment in rural areas, but not in cities and towns and suburbs. Higher shares of university graduates, people aged 20–64, and of people born in a different EU country reduce anti-EU voting in rural areas and towns and suburbs, but have no impact in cities.