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作者

Lochner Marais;Jan Cloete;Molefi Lenka

来源

CITIES,Vol.130,Issue1,Article 103965

语言

英文

关键字

作者单位

Centre for Development Support, University of the Free State, Bloemfontein 9300, South Africa;The Sustainable Minerals Institute, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia;Centre for Development Support, University of the Free State, Bloemfontein 9300, South Africa;The Sustainable Minerals Institute, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia;School of Economics and Management, Fuzhou University, Fujian, 350180, China;School of Management, China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy, Collaborative Innovation Center for Energy Economics and Energy Policy, Xiamen University, Fujian, 361005, China;International Development Cooperation Academy, Shanghai University of International Business and Economics, Shanghai 200336, China;Research paper"}]},{"#name":"title","$":{"id":"d1e1164"},"_":"The economic influence of oil shortage and the optimal strategic petroleum reserve in China"}],"floats":[],"footnotes":[],"attachments":[]},"openArchive":false,"openAccess":true,"document-subtype":"fla","content-family":"serial","contentType":"JL","abstract":{"$$":[{"$$":[{"$":{"id":"d1e1285"},"#name":"section-title","_":"Abstract"},{"$$":[{"$":{"view":"all","id":"d1e1288"},"#name":"simple-para","_":"Strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) plays an vital role in ensuring energy security. China initiated the strategic petroleum reserve in 2004. The optimal scale of SPR has become a concern to policymakers. The paper adopts a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to examine the influence of oil shortages on the economy. It is revealed that when the shortage rate reaches 25%, the price of domestic crude oil will rise by 121.2%, the price of refined petroleum products will rise by 67.8%, and the GDP will decline by 0.7%. The GDP loss is accelerated with the shortage rate rises. The output of coal, electricity and other energy will increase, and most non-energy sectors will decline. There is an inverse U-shaped curve between net export and oil shortage. Based on the result of CGE, we further develop a framework to determine the optimal SPR. The results indicate that the optimal stockpile is 389 million barrels, which is higher than the current reserve scale. At least an additional 198 million barrels of reserves are required. In addition, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to quantify the impact of exogenous variables. The findings of this paper can provide reference information for the policy maker to formulate SPR planning."}],"$":{"view":"all","id":"d1e1287"},"#name":"abstract-sec"}],"$":{"view":"all","id":"d1e1284","class":"author"},"#name":"abstract"},{"$$":[{"$":{"id":"d1e1294"},"#name":"section-title","_":"Highlights"},{"$$":[{"$$":[{"$$":[{"$$":[{"#name":"label","_":"•"},{"$":{"view":"all","id":"d1e1303"},"#name":"para","_":"A CGE model is constructed to analyze the impact of oil shortage."}],"$":{"id":"d1e1300"},"#name":"list-item"},{"$$":[{"#name":"label","_":"•"},{"$":{"view":"all","id":"d1e1308"},"#name":"para","_":"A framework is developed to determine the optimal SPR."}],"$":{"id":"d1e1305"},"#name":"list-item"},{"$$":[{"#name":"label","_":"•"},{"$":{"view":"all","id":"d1e1313"},"#name":"para","_":"A sensitivity analysis is conducted to explore the impact of parameters."}],"$":{"id":"d1e1310"},"#name":"list-item"},{"$$":[{"#name":"label","_":"•"},{"$":{"view":"all","id":"d1e1318"},"#name":"para","_":"The current SPR of China is far below the optimal stockpile size."}],"$":{"id":"d1e1315"},"#name":"list-item"}],"$":{"id":"d1e1299"},"#name":"list"}],"$":{"view":"all","id":"d1e1297"},"#name":"simple-para"}],"$":{"view":"all","id":"d1e1296"},"#name":"abstract-sec"}],"$":{"view":"all","id":"d1e1293","class":"author-highlights"},"#name":"abstract"}],"$":{"xmlns:ce":true,"xmlns:dm":true,"xmlns:sb":true},"#name":"abstracts"},"pdf":{"urlType":"download","url":"/science/article/pii/S2352484722014330/pdfft?md5=147b2248c187f0af16912545b60fb809&pid=1-s2.0-S2352484722014330-main.pdf"},"iss-first":"","vol-first":"8","isThirdParty":false,"issn-primary-unformatted":"23524847","issn-primary-formatted":"2352-4847"},{"pii":"S0264275122003365","journalTitle":"Cities","publicationYear":"2022","publicationDate":"2022-12-01","volumeSupText":"Volume 131","articleNumber":"103897","pageRange":"103897","trace-token":"AAAAQF9nG0PfVwDvNYUvpgkKwfzv_P3KKmRLTP3deBQOizPxTKjdfiNrJ-Wvpc_BDcr_TKnv2TbO8bS--iB-6gSpxpaQ0cywVvQN3s198xOQcO6s3wF50A","authors":{"content":[{"#name":"author-group","$":{"id":"ag0005"},"$$":[{"#name":"author","$":{"id":"au0005","author-id":"S0264275122003365-b91b55f780a77aaf9b558108f63f79bc"},"$$":[{"#name":"given-name","_":"David;Department of History, University of British Columbia, 1873 East Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T1Z1, Canada;Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, USA"}]}]}],"floats":[],"footnotes":[],"attachments":[]},"lastAuthor":{"content":[{"#name":"author","$":{"id":"au1"},"$$":[{"#name":"given-name","_":"Kenneth A.;Department of Urban and Regional Planning, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering (SCEE), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), H-12 Islamabad, Pakistan;Institute of Spatial and Regional Planning (IREUS), University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany;Department of Structural Engineering, NUST Institute of Civil Engineering, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering (SCEE), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), H-12 Islamabad, Pakistan;International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), Section of Environment and Radiation, Lyon, France;Mine Water Re-search Group, North West University, Vaal Campus, South Africa;Cancer Association of South Africa, Cape Town, South Africa;National Cancer Registry, National Institute of Occupational Health, Johannesburg, South Africa;Federation for a Sustainable Environment, Johannesburg, South Africa;Chris Hani Baragwanath Academic Hospital, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa;African Cancer Institute, Cape Town, South Africa;Cancer Research Initiative of South Africa, Durban, South Africa;Workshop report"}]},{"#name":"title","$":{"id":"tit0005"},"_":"Health effects in populations living around the uraniferous gold mine tailings in South Africa: Gaps and opportunities for research"}],"floats":[],"footnotes":[],"attachments":[]},"openArchive":false,"openAccess":false,"document-subtype":"fla","content-family":"serial","contentType":"JL","abstract":{"$$":[{"$$":[{"$":{"id":"sect0005"},"#name":"section-title","_":"Highlights"},{"$$":[{"$$":[{"$$":[{"$$":[{"#name":"label","_":"•"},{"$":{"view":"all","id":"par0005"},"#name":"para","_":"Workshop of cancer research needs in people living by South Africa gold mine tailings."}],"$":{"id":"lsti0005"},"#name":"list-item"},{"$$":[{"#name":"label","_":"•"},{"$":{"view":"all","id":"par0010"},"#name":"para","_":"Environmental measures indicate uranium contamination around gold mine tailings."}],"$":{"id":"lsti0010"},"#name":"list-item"},{"$$":[{"#name":"label","_":"•"},{"$":{"view":"all","id":"par0015"},"#name":"para","_":"Epidemiologic research of human exposures to gold mine tailings currently lacking."}],"$":{"id":"lsti0015"},"#name":"list-item"},{"$$":[{"#name":"label","_":"•"},{"$":{"view":"all","id":"par0020"},"#name":"para","_":"Well-designed epidemiologic studies with individual exposure and outcome data needed."}],"$":{"id":"lsti0020"},"#name":"list-item"}],"$":{"id":"lis0005"},"#name":"list"}],"$":{"view":"all","id":"spar0005"},"#name":"simple-para"}],"$":{"view":"all","id":"abst0005"},"#name":"abstract-sec"}],"$":{"view":"all","id":"abs0005","class":"author-highlights"},"#name":"abstract"}],"$":{"xmlns:ce":true,"xmlns:dm":true,"xmlns:sb":true},"#name":"abstracts"},"pdf":{"urlType":"download","url":"/science/article/pii/S1877782114001064/pdfft?md5=31c15c707e31d0fc5b8c4e03f21a5dc0&pid=1-s2.0-S1877782114001064-main.pdf"},"iss-first":"5","vol-first":"38","isThirdParty":false,"issn-primary-unformatted":"18777821","issn-primary-formatted":"1877-7821"},{"pii":"S0264275122002967","journalTitle":"Cities","publicationYear":"2022","publicationDate":"2022-11-01","volumeSupText":"Volume 130","articleNumber":"103857","pageRange":"103857","trace-token":"AAAAQF9nG0PfVwDvNYUvpgkKwfzv_P3KKmRLTP3deBQOizPxX88x9I7Iza6ypJGBoX9IiNFffdRlxbkWuj3UmI6OfRxe17EjeDYabHA9uyrafxmx704UgQ","authors":{"content":[{"#name":"author-group","$":{"id":"ag0005"},"$$":[{"#name":"author","$":{"id":"au0005","author-id":"S0264275122002967-78169a30998953bc810226540acb5684"},"$$":[{"#name":"given-name","_":"Robert Nutifafa;University of Toronto, Faculty of Arts and Science, Department of Geography and Planning, Toronto, Ontario, Canada;University of Waterloo, Faculty of Environment, School of Planning, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada;Carnegie Mellon University Africa, College of Engineering, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Kigali, Rwanda;University of Western Ontario, Faculty of Social Science, Department of Geography and Environment, London, Ontario, Canada

摘要

The mining sector's share in South Africa's economy has declined over the past 30 years, as has employment on the gold mines. Yet many new mining areas have developed. Mining growth has been driven primarily by platinum and coal, with iron ore and other metals contributing. Of South Africa's 39 ‘small’ or ‘secondary’ cities, 19 have or have had substantial mining economies. Whether growing and declining, they have experienced a rapid increase in informal housing, service backlogs, pressure on municipal finances, and social disruption. We assess these trends in these cities against a background of the literature on boomtowns and referring to evolutionary governance theory. We examine both local and national government responses and policies. Our sources are census and economic data, audited municipal financial statements, and crime statistics. We suggest that investigating the social disruption associated with mining decline should be the sixth phase of boomtown research. We argue that mining town planning should avoid creating long-term dependencies and focus instead on creating flexibility. Questions should be asked about the uncritical way government policy links mining and development. A more careful approach should be followed and alternative approaches to mine housing should be considered.