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作者

Wim Naudé;Paula Nagler

来源

CITIES,Vol.131,Issue1,Article 103909

语言

英文

关键字

R11;R14;I10;I14;I18;COVID-19;Demographics;Health;Pandemics;Urbanization

作者单位

Department of Economics, University College Cork, Ireland;RWTH Aachen University, Germany;Institute for Housing and Urban Development Studies, Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Netherlands;Department of Economics, University College Cork, Ireland;RWTH Aachen University, Germany;Institute for Housing and Urban Development Studies, Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Netherlands

摘要

In this paper we derive a theoretical model of the spread of a viral infection which we use as basis for an estimation strategy to test four interrelated hypotheses on the relationship between country-level COVID-19 mortality rates and the extent of urban development. Using data covering 81 countries we find evidence that countries with a higher population density, a higher share of the urban population living in the largest city, and countries with a higher urbanization rate had on average the same or fewer COVID-19 fatalities compared to less urbanized countries in 2020. Even though COVID-19 spreads faster in cities, fatalities may be lower, conditional on economic development, trust in government, and a well-functioning health care system. Generally, urbanization and city development are associated with economic development: with the resources urbanized countries have, it is easier for them to manage and maintain stricter lockdowns, and to roll out effective pharmaceutical interventions.