Looking into mobility in the Covid-19 ‘eye of the storm’: Simulating virus spread and urban resilience in the Wuhan city region travel flow network

《Looking into mobility in the Covid-19 ‘eye of the storm’: Simulating virus spread and urban resilience in the Wuhan city region travel flow network》

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关键字: Covid-19;City region;Travel flow Network;Spillover effects;Central place theory;Central flow theory

作者单位: Real Estate & Construction, Faculty of Architecture, The University of Hong Kong, Pok Fu Lam, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region;Real Estate & Planning, Henley Business School, University of Reading, Whiteknights, Reading, Berkshire, United Kingdom;School of Geographical Sciences, Changchun Normal University, Changchun, China;Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, China;Real Estate & Construction, Faculty of Architecture, The University of Hong Kong, Pok Fu Lam, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region;Real Estate & Planning, Henley Business School, University of Reading, Whiteknights, Reading, Berkshire, United Kingdom;School of Geographical Sciences, Changchun Normal University, Changchun, China;Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, China

摘要: Recent urban and regional studies have focused on identifying positive spillover effects from intensifying flows of people in city region networks. However, potential negative spillover effects have lacked attention. The article addresses this research gap focusing on the negative spillover effects represented by Covid-19 contagion in the Wuhan regional travel flow network, China. Drawing on central place theory and central flow theory, Covid-19 spatial spread simulation scenarios are explored using a combined micro-level epidemic compartment model and urban network approach. It is found that not only centrally positioned primate but secondary cities are highly risk exposed to contagion. In addition, these cities have enhanced transmission capacity in a balanced, well-connected travel flow network, whereas a centralised or locally clustered network would be more spread resilient. Both hierarchical position and horizontal flows are found relevant for explaining Covid-19 uneven spread and for informing mobility interventions for a potential future outbreak.