Average height of surrounding buildings and district age are the main predictors of tree failure on the streets of São Paulo/Brazil

《Average height of surrounding buildings and district age are the main predictors of tree failure on the streets of São Paulo/Brazil》

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作者: Rodrigo Manfra;Miriam dos Santos Massoca;Priscilla Martins Cerqueira Uras;Aline Andreia Cavalari;Giuliano Maselli Locosselli

来源: URBAN FORESTRY & URBAN GREENING,Vol.74,Issue1,Article 127665

语言: 英文

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作者单位: Universidade Federal de São Paulo - UNIFESP, Diadema, Estado de São Paulo, Brazil;Secretaria do Verde e Meio Ambiente (SVMA) - Prefeitura do Município de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil;Instituto de Pesquisas Ambientais, Secretaria de Infraestrutura e Meio Ambiente, São Paulo, Brazil;Centro de Energia Nuclear na Agricultura, Universidade de São Paulo, Piracicaba, Brazil;Universidade Federal de São Paulo - UNIFESP, Diadema, Estado de São Paulo, Brazil;Secretaria do Verde e Meio Ambiente (SVMA) - Prefeitura do Município de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil;Instituto de Pesquisas Ambientais, Secretaria de Infraestrutura e Meio Ambiente, São Paulo, Brazil;Centro de Energia Nuclear na Agricultura, Universidade de São Paulo, Piracicaba, Brazil;University of Minnesota, College of Food, Agricultural and Natural Resource Sciences, 1420 Eckles Ave #190, St. Paul 55108, MN, United States;Geospatial Sciences, School of Science, STEM College, RMIT University, GPO Box 2476V, Victoria 3001, Australia;School of Tourism and Geography Science, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071, China;USDA Forest Service/Davey Institute, Davey Tree Expert Company, 5 Moon Library, SUNY-ESF, Syracuse, NY 13210, USA;US Geological Survey, Upper Midwest Water Science Center, 8505 Research Way, Middleton, WI 53562, USA;Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin – Madison, Engineering Hall, 1415 Engineering Drive, Madison, WI 53716, USA;Wayne State University, College of Engineering, 5050 Anthony Wayne Drive, Detroit, MI 48202, USA;US Geological Survey, Upper Midwest Water Science Center, 5840 Enterprise Drive, Lansing, MI 48911, USA;University of Wisconsin – Stevens Point, College of Natural Resources, Room 278 Trainer Natural Resources Building, Stevens Point, WI 54481, USA;Department of Environmental Resources Engineering, SUNY ESF, Syracuse, NY 13210, USA;USDA Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis, 5 Moon Library, SUNY-ESF, Syracuse, NY 13210, USA;Biological Sciences Department, California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo, CA 93407, USA;Urban Forest Ecosystems Institute, California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo, CA 93407, USA;Department of Computer Science and Software Engineering, California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo, CA 93407, USA;West Coast Arborists (WCA), Anaheim, CA 92806, USA;Social Sciences Department, California Polytechnic University, San Luis Obispo, CA 93407, USA;Department of Economics, California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo, CA 93407, USA;Department of Plant Sciences, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA;Cartography & GIS Research Group, Department of Geography, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, 1050 Ixelles, Belgium;Building, Architecture, & Town Planning (BATir) Department, Université Libre de Bruxelles, 1050 Ixelles, Belgium;The Program in Planning and Use of Renewable Resource, Federal University of São Carlos, Sorocaba Campus, João Leme dos Santos Road (SP-264), km 110, Sorocaba, SP, Brazil;Department of Ecology, Institute of Biosciences, University of São Paulo, R. do Matão, 321, São Paulo, SP, Brazil;Department of Environmental Science, Federal University of São Carlos, Sorocaba Campus, João Leme dos Santos Road (SP-264), km 110, Sorocaba, SP, Brazil

摘要: Tree failure is an increasingly frequent issue in cities worldwide leading to the risk of property damage, financial loss, citizen injury, and death. Assessing tree failure is a challenging task since early signs are often not visible and require a detailed evaluation of each tree, which is limiting considering the management of trees across the whole city. We used Regression Trees and Bagging to assess tree failure on the streets of São Paulo / Brazil using parameters from the gray and green infrastructure that could be easily estimated in the field to support the proper preventive maintenance of street trees. We characterized the districts’ age, average building height, tree height, canopy cover, sidewalk width, sidewalk slope, and terrain slope of 26,616 fallen trees. The Regression Tree shows 82% accuracy and reveals that building height is the main predictor of tree failure, followed by district age, sidewalk width, and tree height. The proportion of tree failure in the most verticalized areas, with on average five stories buildings or taller, is twice that observed in the entire city. Tree failure also increases in districts older than 42 years. The proportion of tree failure is 37% lower than the city’s average in relatively newer districts with low building height, where trees taller than 9.58 m are more prone to failure. These results point to possible roles of wind tunneling, shading, pollution, canopy conflicts with service cables in the urban canyons, and the natural senescence of trees in the oldest districts. The present study establishes comprehensive guidelines for effective preventive maintenance of the street trees in São Paulo.