The ‘certain’ returns from expenditures for ‘uncertain’ activities: a local multiplier approach to evaluate regional R&I policy

《The ‘certain’ returns from expenditures for ‘uncertain’ activities: a local multiplier approach to evaluate regional R&I policy》

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作者单位: a ECOOM Unit, R&D Department, Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB), Brussels, Belgium;a ECOOM Unit, R&D Department, Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB), Brussels, Belgium;b Monitoring Research & Innovation Unit, Belgian Science Policy Office (BELSPO), Brussels, Belgium;c Department of Economics, Universiteit Gent (UGent), Ghent, Belgium;d Policy & Monitoring Team, Brussels Institute for the Encouragement of Scientific Research and Innovation (Innoviris), Brussels, Belgium;e Policy Advisor for Research and Innovation, Cabinet of the Minister-President Vervoort, Government of the Brussels-Capital Region, Brussels, Belgium;a ECOOM Unit, R&D Department, Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB), Brussels, Belgium

摘要: The paper proposes a policy evaluation approach to estimate the local multiplier effect of (public) R&I expenditures in the context of regional innovation systems (RIS). Starting from input-output tables and recent improvements in local multipliers, the proposed approach tracks all economic flows generated by the initial public R&I expenditures, distinguishing direct impact and subsequent effects on the supply chain, consumption, fiscal flows and inter-regional spillovers. The main interest of this approach is the focus on the ‘certain’ returns occurring within a RIS, irrespective of their ‘uncertain’ innovative outcomes, i.e. this approach tracks the economic flows of R&I expenditures even if innovation-oriented activities should fail to provide the expected benefits for regional productivity. The case of Innoviris, the Brussels regional R&I agency, is discussed to validate this approach unpacking the economic flows in a context of strong interregional linkages showing the spatial distribution of economic returns generated by R&I-oriented public expenditures.