Legacy city residents’ lack of trust in their governments: An examination of Flint, Michigan residents’ trust at the height of the water crisis

《Legacy city residents’ lack of trust in their governments: An examination of Flint, Michigan residents’ trust at the height of the water crisis》

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作者: Victoria Morckel;Kathryn Terzano

来源: JOURNAL OF URBAN AFFAIRS,Vol.41,Issue5,P.585-601

语言: 英文

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作者单位: University of Michigan–Flint

摘要: We document the level of trust that Flint, Michigan residents had in their local and state governments during the water crisis, a series of government failures that resulted in lead and other contaminants in the city’s water system. We then compare residents’ level of trust to that of nonresidents and use regression analyses to test whether a lack of trust in government predicts the extent to which Flint residents are considering leaving the city. Lastly, we use content analysis to explore measures to restore residents’ trust. We find that trust in government is very low, a lack of trust predicts considering leaving, and it will be difficult for policymakers to restore trust. Distrust in government matters because it could hinder future planning and recovery efforts and contribute to additional population losses.IntroductionThe Flint water crisisIn April 2014, a state-appointed emergency manager, with the support of the mayor, switched Flint, Michigan’s water source from Lake Huron to the Flint River as a cost-saving measure (Kennedy, 2016 Kennedy, M. (2016). Lead-laced water in Flint: A step-by-step look at the makings of a crisis. Retrieved from http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/04/20/465545378/lead-laced-water-in-flint-a-step-by-step-look-at-the-makings-of-a-crisis [Google Scholar]; Lin, Rutter, & Park, 2016 Lin, J., Rutter, J., & Park, H. (2016, January 21). Events that led to Flint’s water crisis. The New York Times. Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/01/21/us/flint-lead-water-timeline.html?_r=0 [Google Scholar]). When the switch was made, the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality did not require local officials to treat the water with corrosion-control chemicals (Bridge Staff, 2016 Bridge Staff. (2016, March 1). Flint crisis timeline: Part 3. Bridge Magazine. Retrieved from http://www.bridgemi.com/truth-squad-companion/flint-crisis-timeline-part-3?p=35117 [Google Scholar]), even though the river was more acidic than the lake (Oosting, 2016 Oosting, J. (2016, June 24). Sued firm says Flint, state rejected corrosion controls. The Detroit News. Retrieved from http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/michigan/flint-water-crisis/2016/06/24/sued-firm-says-flint-state-rejected-corrosion-controls/86362528/ [Google Scholar]). This caused lead and other metals to leach from the city’s aging pipes into the water (Dingle, 2016 Dingle, A. (2016, December). The Flint water crisis: What’s really going on? Retrieved from https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/education/resources/highschool/chemmatters/past-issues/2016-2017/december-2016/flint-water-crisis.html [Google Scholar]; Torrice, 2016 Torrice, M. (2016). How lead ended up in Flint’s tap water. Chemical & Engineering News, 94(7), 26–29. Retrieved from http://cen.acs.org/articles/94/i7/Lead-Ended-Flints-Tap-Water.html[Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Despite an almost immediate decline in water quality following the switch and complaints of adverse health effects (Dolan, Egan, & Spangler, 2016 Dolan, M., Egan, P., & Spangler, T. (2016, March 24). E-mails show feds knew of Flint rashes in mid-2014. Detroit Free Press. Retrieved from http://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/flint-water-crisis/2016/03/24/flint-water-crisis-emails-rashes/82214532/ [Google Scholar]; Felton, 2014 Felton, R. (2014, August 13). Flint residents raise concerns over discolored water. Detroit MetroTimes. Retrieved from http://www.metrotimes.com/detroit/flint-residents-raise-concerns-over-discolored-water/Content?oid=2231724 [Google Scholar]), local and state officials downplayed residents’ concerns for over a year and assured them the water was safe (Egan, 2016a Egan, P. (2016a, January 29). Amid denials, state workers in Flint got clean water. Detroit Free Press. Retrieved from http://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/flint-water-crisis/2016/01/28/amid-denials-state-workers-flint-got-clean-water/79470650/ [Google Scholar]). Feeling as though they were not being heard, a resident and an Environmental Protection Agency employee turned to an outside water expert, Marc Edwards of Virginia Tech, to evaluate the city’s water. Edwards’s team discovered very high lead levels in the tap water of some Flint homes (Lurie, 2016 Lurie, J. (2016). Meet the mom who helped expose Flint’s toxic water nightmare. Retrieved from http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/01/mother-exposed-flint-lead-contamination-water-crisis/# [Google Scholar]).Residents’ concerns and Edwards’s results were not taken seriously by government officials until a local pediatrician, Mona Hanna-Attisha, found increases in children’s blood lead levels that corresponded to the time when the switch in water sources was made (Hanna-Attisha, Lachance, Sadler, & Schnepp, 2016 Hanna-Attisha, M., Lachance, J., Sadler, R. C., & Schnepp, A. C. (2016). Elevated blood lead levels in children associated with the Flint drinking water crisis: A spatial analysis of risk and public health response. American Journal of Public Health, 106, 283–290. doi:10.2105/ajph.2015.303003[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). At that point, the state reevaluated its prior water-testing data (which had previously been interpreted as not indicating a lead problem) and concluded that the water was actually unsafe for consumption (Bosman, Davey, & Smith, 2016 Bosman, J., Davey, M., & Smith, M. (2016, January 20). As water problems grew, officials belittled complaints from Flint. The New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/21/us/flint-michigan-lead-water-crisis.html [Google Scholar]; Bridge Staff, 2016 Bridge Staff. (2016, March 1). Flint crisis timeline: Part 3. Bridge Magazine. Retrieved from http://www.bridgemi.com/truth-squad-companion/flint-crisis-timeline-part-3?p=35117 [Google Scholar]). It was later found that the failures to treat the water properly also contributed to an outbreak of Legionnaires’ disease during the period of Flint River usage (Schwake, Garner, Strom, Pruden, & Edwards, 2016 Schwake, D. O., Garner, E., Strom, O. R., Pruden, A., & Edwards, M. A. (2016). Legionella DNA markers in tap water coincident with a spike in Legionnaires’ disease in Flint, MI. Environmental Science & Technology Letters, 3, 311–315. doi:10.1021/acs.estlett.6b00192[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). A federal state of emergency was declared in January 2016 and was in effect until August 2016 (Walker, 2016 Walker, T. (2016, August 12). Flint water crisis: Federal state of emergency expires, but the public health disaster is far from over. Independent. Retrieved from http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/flint-water-crisis-federal-michigan-emergency-expires-a7188561.html [Google Scholar]).Despite the state of emergency now being lifted, the water crisis is considered ongoing as of this writing (early 2018) given that residents remain fearful of the water (Avetisyan, 2018 Avetisyan, A. (2018). Mistrust remains 2 years after Flint water crisis. Retrieved from https://www.voanews.com/a/mistrust-remains-2-years-after-flint-water-crisis/4189112.html [Google Scholar]; Dennis, 2016 Dennis, B. (2016, October 22). “If I could afford to leave, I would.” In Flint, a water crisis with no end in sight. The Washington Post. Retrieved from https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/if-i-could-afford-to-leave-i-would-in-flint-a-water-crisis-with-no-end-in-sight/2016/10/21/4d42f2f0-953c-11e6-9b7c-57290af48a49_story.html?tid=hybrid_experimentrandom_1_na [Google Scholar]), few of the pipes damaged by the improperly treated water have been replaced (Derringer, 2016 Derringer, N. (2016). Why Flint’s lead pipe replacement costs so much, and moves so slowly. Retrieved from http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/10/why_flints_lead_pipe_replaceme.html [Google Scholar]; Johnson, 2017 Johnson, J. (2017). Officials say it may take 3 more years to replace Flint’s water pipes. Retrieved from http://www.mlive.com/news/flint/index.ssf/2017/01/officials_say_it_may_take_at_l.html [Google Scholar]), and the physical and mental health effects of lead exposure are long lasting (Cuthbertson, Newkirk, Ilardo, Loveridge, & Skidmore, 2016 Cuthbertson, C. A., Newkirk, C., Ilardo, J., Loveridge, S., & Skidmore, M. (2016). Angry, scared, and unsure: Mental health consequences of contaminated water in Flint, Michigan. Journal of Urban Health, 93, 899–908. doi:10.1007/s11524-016-0089-y[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]; Healy & Bernstein, 2016 Healy, C., & Bernstein, J. (2016). Legal and policy interventions to address developmental and mental health impacts of the Flint water crisis. Environmental Justice, 9(6), 167–175. doi:10.1089/env.2016.0034[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Because of the failures to protect residents’ health, officials at many levels of government have been subject to hearings (Daly, 2016 Daly, B. M. (2016). House GOP quietly closes Flint, Michigan water investigation. Retrieved from http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1A1-1f88599ad426455f8089060dc8d83307.html?refid=easy_hf [Google Scholar]), criminal charges (Egan & Anderson, 2016 Egan, P., & Anderson, E. (2016, December 20). Emergency managers, city officials charged in Flint water crisis. Detroit Free Press. Retrieved from http://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/flint-water-crisis/2016/12/20/schuette-flint-water-charges/95644964/ [Google Scholar]), and criticism by the media (Shoichet, 2016 Shoichet, C. (2016). Flint water crisis: 7 Takeaways from CNN interview with Gov. Rick Snyder. Retrieved from http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/27/us/michigan-governor-rick-snyder-interview-flint-water/ [Google Scholar]). Thus, we have reason to believe that the Flint water crisis damaged residents’ trust in government, particularly because government officials failed to take residents’ concerns seriously back in 2014.Trust in governmentIn this article, we document Flint residents’ levels of trust in local and state governments at the height of the water crisis (summer 2016), compare these levels to levels reported by nonresidents, examine whether a lack of trust could contribute to residents considering leaving the city, and identify measures to restore trust.We care about trust because if Flint residents do not trust their government, they may not participate in government-led or -initiated planning processes necessary for the city’s recovery. Just prior to the change in water sources, the city updated its master plan and won an award for its public outreach efforts, in part because over 5,000 residents participated in planning over the course of a year (Houseal Lavigne Associates, 2013 Houseal Lavigne Associates. (2013). Imagine Flint: Master plan for a sustainable Flint. Retrieved from http://www.imagineflint.com/Documents.aspx [Google Scholar]; Tregoning, 2015 Tregoning, H. (2015). Coming full circle: The innovation of HUD’s sustainable communities initiative. Cityscape, 17(2), 189–195. Retrieved from https://www.huduser.gov/portal/periodicals/cityscpe/vol17num2/ch7.pdf[Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Yet in May 2017, the city had an 18-day public comment period about which water source it should use, and only four residents participated, even though municipal water quality remains a prominent community concern (Fonger, 2017b Fonger, R. (2017b). Where should Flint get its water? Only 4 people comment after 18 days. Retrieved from http://www.mlive.com/news/flint/index.ssf/2017/05/where_should_flints_drinking_w.html [Google Scholar]). Residents’ lack of trust in government may have contributed to the lack of participation—although a local news source implicated the poor system for receiving residents’ feedback and inaccessible information on a technical question (Fonger, 2017b Fonger, R. (2017b). Where should Flint get its water? Only 4 people comment after 18 days. Retrieved from http://www.mlive.com/news/flint/index.ssf/2017/05/where_should_flints_drinking_w.html [Google Scholar]). Nonetheless, though these two planning processes (master planning and determining the city’s water source) are not directly comparable, it is concerning that a crucial decision about water—one that will cost the city hundreds of millions of dollars over decades—yielded very little interest or input from the public, particularly a public that was previously engaged in planning and that continues to be concerned about the water (Fonger, 2017a Fonger, R. (2017a). Flint water council: Residents still believe “something wrong” with water. Retrieved from http://www.mlive.com/news/flint/index.ssf/2017/03/flint_water_committee_resident.html [Google Scholar]).Due to a lack of longitudinal data on Flint residents’ level of trust prior to the crisis, we cannot demonstrate a causal link between the water crisis and a lack of trust in government. However, studies have shown that trust is dependent upon residents’ perceptions that the government is fiscally responsible (Phelan, 2006 Phelan, C. (2006). Public trust and government betrayal. Journal of Economic Theory, 130, 27–43. doi:10.1016/j.jet.2005.03.003[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]); acts with competence, benevolence, and integrity (Bannister & Connolly, 2011 Bannister, F., & Connolly, R. (2011). Trust and transformational government: A proposed framework for research. Government Information Quarterly, 28(2), 137–147. doi:10.1016/j.giq.2010.06.010[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]); and delivers public services effectively and efficiently (Whiteley, Clarke, Sanders, & Stewart, 2015 Whiteley, P., Clarke, H. D., Sanders, D., & Stewart, M. (2015). Why do voters lose trust in governments? Public perceptions of government honesty and trustworthiness in Britain 2000–2013. The British Journal of Politics & International Relations, 18, 234–254. doi:10.1111/1467-856x.12073[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Likewise, Flint residents’ trust was likely already low because of problems that predated the crisis by years or decades, such as the city’s loss of major employers (Gillespie, 2016 Gillespie, P. (2016). Flint, Michigan: A hollow frame of a once affluence city. Retrieved from http://money.cnn.com/2016/03/06/news/economy/flint-economy-democratic-debate/index.html [Google Scholar]), deteriorating physical conditions (e.g., blight and vacant homes; Pruett, 2015 Pruett, N. (2015). Beyond blight: City of Flint blight elimination framework. Retrieved from https://www.dropbox.com/s/f7i0vw00g2p9a9d/Beyond%20Blight%20Framework%20Final%20Adopted%202015.pdf?dl=0 [Google Scholar]), declining service quality (e.g., fewer fire and police personnel; Longley, 2010 Longley, K. (2010). City of Flint to lose 80 police, firefighters with layoffs. Retrieved from http://www.mlive.com/news/flint/index.ssf/2010/02/city_of_flint_to_lose_80_publi.html [Google Scholar]), the state’s appointment of several emergency managers since 2002 (Savage, 2012 Savage, C. (2012, February 15). The scandal of Michigan’s emergency managers. The Nation. Retrieved from https://www.thenation.com/article/scandal-michigans-emergency-managers/ [Google Scholar]), and the state’s poor response to the Great Recession (Hoogterp, 2011 Hoogterp, E. (2011). Great Recession leaves Michigan poorer, census numbers show. Retrieved from http://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2011/10/great_recession_leaves_michiga.html [Google Scholar]). Nevertheless, the water crisis in and of itself is a visible and well-documented example of the failures of various levels of government to act in the aforementioned positive ways (i.e., responsibly and with benevolence; Bernstein & Dennis, 2016 Bernstein, L., & Dennis, B. (2016, January 24). Flint’s water crisis reveals government failures at every level. The Washington Post. Retrieved from https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/flints-water-crisis-reveals-government-failures-at-every-level/2016/01/23/03705f0c-c11e-11e5-bcda-62a36b394160_story.html?utm_term=.b5e2cdce8d1d [Google Scholar]),meaning that regardless of how low levels of trust were prior to the switch of water sources, it is likely that the crisis further damaged trust. After all, the Flint water crisis is “arguably one of the most shocking environmental crimes ever perpetrated by government agencies” (Edwards & Pruden, 2016 Edwards, M., & Pruden, A. (2016). The Flint water crisis: Overturning the research paradigm to advance science and defend public welfare. Environmental Science & Technology Letters, 50, 8935–8936. doi:10.1021/acs.est.6b03573[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], p. 8935).Anecdotal evidence further supports this notion that residents’ trust has been damaged. In June 2017, five public officials were charged with involuntary manslaughter for their failure to protect public health in response to the water situation. At the press conference announcing the charges, the state of Michigan’s attorney general stated, “The health crisis in Flint has created a trust crisis for Michigan government, exposing a serious lack of confidence in leaders who accept responsibility and solve problems” (Eggert, 2017 Eggert, D. (2017). Health chief, 4 others charged with involuntary manslaughter in Flint water probe. Retrieved from http://www.cbsnews.com/news/flint-water-probe-nick-lyon-michigan-health-chief-charged-with-involuntary-manslaughter/ [Google Scholar]). More pointedly, Flint resident Jan Worth-Nelson (2017 Worth-Nelson, J. (2017, April 10). A blue bird lands in Flint and we do not call it redemption. Belt Magazine. Retrieved from http://beltmag.com/bluebird-lands-flint-not-call-redemption/ [Google Scholar]) wrote the following for Belt Magazine: Two years in, we still don’t know if our water will be fixed. Or how. Or by whom. This is the backdrop to everything in our lives: layer upon layer of mistrust, layer upon layer of anger and fear. Even if you are a reasonable person and not given to catastrophizing, even if you believe that the water is safe enough to drink now, even if you’ve had it tested, had yourself tested, even if you’ve taking precautions, it’s still a dark hum under the regular noise of life. Something went really wrong here.But rather than rely solely on individual qualitative accounts such as these, we evaluated the level of trust of 405 residents during the water crisis—specifically in summer 2016, just prior to the federal state of emergency expiring. We believe that it is important to document trust, despite the unavailability of prior longitudinal data at the local level, so that we can determine how low levels were at the height of the crisis in Flint and to provide a baseline level for future studies that could examine whether trust in government has improved. It is also important for policymakers to understand the level of trust today, because simply providing residents with more information about the water, or any other issue, will not be effective if residents do not trust the individuals or institutions providing it (Meredith, Eisenman, Rhodes, Ryan, & Long, 2007 Meredith, L. S., Eisenman, D. P., Rhodes, H., Ryan, G., & Long, A. (2007). Trust influences response to public health messages during a bioterrorist event. Journal of Health Communication, 12(3), 217–232. doi:10.1080/10810730701265978[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Finally, if the public lacks sufficient trust in government, it is unlikely to support measures to adequately fund the very services, such as planning, that could improve city conditions (Glaser & Hildreth, 1999 Glaser, M. A., & Hildreth, W. B. (1999). Service delivery satisfaction and willingness to pay taxes: Citizen recognition of local government performance. Public Productivity & Management Review, 23, 48–67. doi:10.2307/3380792[Crossref] , [Google Scholar])—although one must keep in mind that in Flint’s case, residents may be unable to pay for such services (and may therefore not support them), even if they recognize their importance and trust the government.Population lossWe now turn to a different but related topic: the extent to which a lack of trust in government predicts whether residents are considering leaving Flint. Much has been written about the causes and consequences of population loss (e.g., Beauregard, 2009 Beauregard, R. A. (2009). Urban population loss in historical perspective: United States, 1820–2000. Environment and Planning A, 41, 514–528. doi:10.1068/a40139a[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]; Dewar & Thomas, 2013 Dewar, M., & Thomas, J. M. (2013). The city after abandonment. Philadephia: University of Pennsylvania Press. [Google Scholar]), but no study has examined whether a lack of trust in government correlates to residents’ desires to leave a city. We consider this question because Morckel and Rybarczyk (2018 Morckel, V., & Rybarczyk, G. (2018). The effects of the water crisis on population dynamics in the city of Flint. Cities & Health. Advance online publication. doi:10.1080/23748834.2018.1473095[Taylor & Francis Online] , [Google Scholar]) found that the water crisis could cause a large proportion of residents to leave Flint. Additionally, issues of trust relate to population dynamics such that “political trust and social capital at the municipal and metropolitan scale are easier to erode in a context of long-term decline than to rebuild in an equivalent period of growth” (Galster, 2017 Galster, G. (2017). Why shrinking cities are not mirror images of growing cities: A research agenda of six testable propositions. Urban Affairs Review. Advance online publication. doi: 10.1177/1078087417720543[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], p. 9). However, very little empirical work has been conducted on predictors of or changes in trust in legacy cities (Galster, 2017 Galster, G. (2017). Why shrinking cities are not mirror images of growing cities: A research agenda of six testable propositions. Urban Affairs Review. Advance online publication. doi: 10.1177/1078087417720543[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), which further supports the need for our study.Population loss is a serious concern for Flint. Through deindustrialization and suburban sprawl (Dandaneau, 1996 Dandaneau, S. P. (1996). A town abandoned: Flint, Michigan, confronts deindustrialization. Albany: State University of New York Press. [Google Scholar]; Highsmith, 2015 Highsmith, A. R. (2015). Demolition means progress: Flint, Michigan, and the fate of the American metropolis. Chicago, IL: The University of Chicago Press.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]), among other factors, the city has already lost more than half its peak population of nearly 200,000 in 1960 (Gillotti & Kildee, 2009 Gillotti, T., & Kildee, D. (2009). Land banks as revitalization tools: The example of Genesee County and the city of Flint, Michigan. In K. Pallagst et al. (Eds.), The future of shrinking cities: Problems, patterns and strategies of urban transformation in a global context (pp. 139–148). Berkeley, CA: UC Berkeley, Institute of Urban and Regional Development Monograph Series. Retrieved from http://escholarship.org/uc/item/7zz6s7bm [Google Scholar]; U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 U.S. Census Bureau. (2015). Quickfacts for Flint city, Michigan. 2015 Population estimates. Retrieved from http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/2629000,00 [Google Scholar]). Population loss is associated with a number of challenges, including vacancy (J. Lee & Newman, 2017 Lee, J., & Newman, G. (2017). Forecasting urban vacancy dynamics in a shrinking city: A land transformation model. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 6(4), 124. doi:10.3390/ijgi6040124[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), blight (Ehrenfeucht & Nelson, 2011 Ehrenfeucht, R., & Nelson, M. (2011). Planning, population loss and equity in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. Planning Practice and Research, 26(2), 129–146. doi:10.1080/02697459.2011.560457[Taylor & Francis Online] , [Google Scholar]), concentrated poverty (Fol, 2012 Fol, S. (2012). Urban shrinkage and socio-spatial disparities: Are the remedies worse than the disease?. Built Environment, 38, 259–275. doi:10.2148/benv.38.2.259[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]), and declining property values caused by a surplus of housing relative to demand (Galster, 2012 Galster, G. (2012). Driving Detroit: The quest for respect in the Motor City. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]). These and other challenges only exacerbate the city’s existing problems, with declining revenues and increasing costs of services and operations that stem from these and other problems common to legacy cities (e.g., a mismatch between infrastructure and population size and a low-income population that uses more services but cannot pay for them; Galster, 2012 Galster, G. (2012). Driving Detroit: The quest for respect in the Motor City. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]; Manville & Kuhlmann, 2016 Manville, M., & Kuhlmann, D. (2016). The social and fiscal consequences of urban decline: Evidence from large American cities, 1980–2010. Urban Affairs Review, 54, 451–489. doi:10.1177/1078087416675741[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]; Morckel, 2017 Morckel, V. (2017). Why the Flint, Michigan, USA water crisis is an urban planning failure. Cities, 62, 23–27. doi:10.1016/j.cities.2016.12.002[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]).Though considering leaving is not the same as actually leaving, Lu (1999 Lu, M. (1999). Do people move when they say they will? Inconsistencies in individual migration behavior. Population and Environment, 20, 467–488. doi:10.1023/A:1023365119874[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) found that 43.6% of individuals who expressed mobility intentions (in general, not just in Flint) will actually move within 2 years. Therefore, our analyses on predictors of considering leaving Flint could be a precursor to larger questions about population loss.Significant and continued population loss is also an issue for the health and function of the water distribution system in Flint. Water sits stagnant in oversized systems due to low demand relative to pipe size, increasing the risk of water-borne diseases (E. J. Lee & Schwab, 2005 Lee, E. J., & Schwab, K. J. (2005). Deficiencies in drinking water distribution systems in developing countries. Journal of Water and Health, 3(2), 109–127.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]). Reduced flow through the system causes pipes to degrade faster, which impacts water quality as the water reacts with the deteriorating walls of the pipelines (Faust & Abraham, 2014 Faust, K., & Abraham, D. M. (2014). Evaluating the feasibility of decommissioning residential water infrastructure in cities facing urban decline. Paper presented at Construction Research Congress, May, Atlanta, GA. doi:10.1061/9780784413517.126[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]). Old and oversized pipes are prone to back-siphonage (i.e., pulling in contaminated water from outside the system), which further increases the risks of contamination and disease (Geldreich, 1996 Geldreich, E. E. (1996). Microbial quality of water supply in distribution systems. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press. [Google Scholar]). This is why Morckel (2017 Morckel, V. (2017). Why the Flint, Michigan, USA water crisis is an urban planning failure. Cities, 62, 23–27. doi:10.1016/j.cities.2016.12.002[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) argues that Flint’s failure to “right-size”—that is, to match the size of services to the size of the population—is one of the causes of the water crisis. If the city’s population continues to decline, then the quality of services and infrastructure will continue to decline as well (Bourne, 1992 Bourne, L. S. (1992). Self-fulfilling prophecies?: Decentralization, inner city decline, and the quality of urban life. Journal of the American Planning Association, 58, 509–513. doi:10.1080/01944369208975832[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]; Schilling & Logan, 2008 Schilling, J., & Logan, J. (2008). Greening the Rust Belt: A green infrastructure model for right sizing America’s shrinking cities. Journal of the American Planning Association, 74, 451–466. doi:10.1080/01944360802354956[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]).With the data sets currently available, we cannot identify why there may be a connection between trust in government and considering leaving a city in general, though we have a few theories about Flint specifically. By having an emergency manager in place, the local government likely appeared incompetent and fiscally irresponsible prior to the crisis, with the crisis further emphasizing any real or preconceived notions of incompetence. It may be that a lack of trust in government is, in part, indicative of residents’ beliefs that their government does not, or will not, act responsibly with their tax dollars (Keele, 2007 Keele, L. (2007). Social capital and the dynamics of trust in government. American Journal of Political Science, 51, 241–254. doi:10.1111/ajps.2007.51.issue-2[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar])—in which case there may be a desire to move to a new community where revenues are perceived to be spent more sensibly and where the quality of services is presumably better (Tiebout, 1956 Tiebout, C. (1956). A pure theory of local expenditures. Journal of Political Economy, 64, 416–424. doi:10.1086/257839[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Moreover, because protecting public health is a basic governmental function (Institute of Medicine, 2003 Institute of Medicine, Board on Health Promotion and Disease Prevention, Committee on Assuring the Health of the Public in the 21st Century. (2003). The governmental public health infrastructure. In The future of the public’s health in the 21st century (pp. 96–169). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. [Google Scholar]), the failure of government to protect public health in Flint during the water crisis may be sufficient reason in and of itself for residents to not trust the government and/or to desire to relocate. Similarly, if trust in government is low, residents may not believe that the water crisis will be appropriately resolved. And if the crisis is not resolved, then according to Morckel and Rybarczyk’s (2018 Morckel, V., & Rybarczyk, G. (2018). The effects of the water crisis on population dynamics in the city of Flint. Cities & Health. Advance online publication. doi:10.1080/23748834.2018.1473095[Taylor & Francis Online] , [Google Scholar]) research, residents could relocate.Restoring trustTo reiterate, we are interested in the issue of trust in government because of the potential implications of a lack of trust for participation in planning and recovery efforts and the possible connections to population loss, and thus we examine measures to restore Flint residents’ trust in their government at the local and state levels. Prior research has shown that trust in government may be improved through political efficacy and e-government,11. By e-government, we refer to the delivery of governmental information and services and opportunities for political participation provided online or through other digital means (Parent, Vandebeek, & Gemino, 2005 Parent, M., Vandebeek, C., & Gemino, A. (2005). Building citizen trust through e-government. Government Information Quarterly, 22, 720–736. doi:10.1109/hicss.2004.1265304[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]; Tolbert & Mossberger, 2006 Tolbert, C. J., & Mossberger, K. (2006). The eﬀects of e-government on trust and conﬁdence in government. Technology, Communication, Collaboration, 66, 354–369. doi:10.1111/j.1540-6210.2006.00594.x[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]View all notes as well as increased oversight or regulation of government agencies by entities the public already trusts (Thomas, 1998 Thomas, C. W. (1998). Maintaining and restoring public trust in government agencies and their employees. Administration & Society, 30(2), 166–193. doi:10.1177/0095399798302003[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). However, to our knowledge, no research has examined how to restore trust after a government-created health crisis. We therefore take an exploratory approach and ask our participants the open-ended questions, “What can be done to improve or increase your trust in your local government?” and “What can be done to improve or increase your trust in your state government?” With this information, planners and policymakers can presumably take action to restore, or at least improve, residents’ trust.MethodsSurvey instrumentWe surveyed Flint residents in the summer of 2016. The survey asked questions about levels of concern about the water crisis, likelihood of leaving the city, perception of water quality, concerns about housing (such as property values and the ability to relocate), levels of trust in local and state government, opinions about how to restore trust, basic health indicators, and demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. Not all survey items were used in this particular study.Survey participantsA total of 405 Flint residents took part in the survey, which was administered online (n = 151; a convenience sample), by phone (n = 144; 28% response rate), and by mail (n = 110; 7.1% response rate22. A letter accompanying the mailed survey contained information about the online survey, so some residents who received the survey in the mail may have completed it online (which might help to explain the low response rate). Likewise, the surveys that were returned via mail do not necessarily represent all of the residents whom we reached using this method.View all notes ). The surveys were identical regardless of mode, and responses to the questions did not differ by mode. An invitation to participate, along with a hyperlink to the online survey, was distributed to residents through newsletters, group email lists, and neighborhood meetings held by Flint community development organizations and educational institutions. Trained research assistants called 520 households selected at random using the white pages of the phone book; 144 residents participated. A total of 1,550 households received a mailed survey. The first 1,000 were sent in May 2016 to households selected at random using a city parcel file; the remaining 550 surveys were mailed in July 2016 to randomly selected households in neighborhoods with low response rates in the previous surveying efforts (to achieve an even geographic distribution of responses). Between the two mailings, 110 surveys were completed and returned.Notably, despite efforts to randomly sample, disproportionately more women, Caucasians, and highly educated residents participated. Participants also tended to be older and have higher incomes than Flint’s population. Thus, it is possible that these groups were more motivated to take part in the study because they had greater awareness of the effects of the water situation, were more affected by it, or simply had more time to complete the survey. Further, because roughly one third of the sample was a nonprobability sample, the tests of statistical significance must be viewed with caution and interpreted as suggestive. Nonetheless, even if the study is somewhat limited in its generalizability, it remains relevant because it provides some measure of levels of trust in Flint, it provides information about whether a lack of trust could encourage residents to leave the city, and it indicates how trust may be restored, at least for some segments of the Flint population. Additionally, our sample had sufficient variability in the sociodemographic variables that any effects of these variables could be detected in the regression analyses.AnalysesHypothesis 1: A large proportion of Flint residents do not trust their local or state governments compared to Michiganders and Americans in general. We ran descriptive statistics on the survey items that asked about levels of agreement with the statements, “I trust my local government”33. As of late April 2015 (1 year prior to our survey), the city of Flint moved from being under the control of an emergency manager to home rule order under the guidance of a Receivership Transition Advisory Board (RTAB). The mayor and city council resumed their defined roles with regard to city businesses, though major financial and policy decisions made by local officials were reviewed by the RTAB through early 2018 (City of Flint, 2018). Participants’ views about the “local government” may have therefore been influenced by the presence of the RTAB.View all notes and “I trust my state government.” The answer options were strongly disagree, disagree, unsure, agree, and strongly agree, coded 0–4. Though we cannot conduct analyses on trust pre– and post–water crisis as noted previously, we compare our participants’ levels of trust to levels reported by Michigan residents and Americans in general. Because Americans’ low level of trust in government is well documented and has received much attention in the media and academic literature (e.g., Elving, 2015 Elving, R. (2015). Poll: 1 in 5 Americans trusts the government. Retrieved from http://www.npr.org/2015/11/23/457063796/poll-only-1-in-5-americans-say-they-trust-the-government [Google Scholar]; Nye, Zelikow, & King, 1997 Nye, J., Zelikow, P., & King, D. (1997). Why people don’t trust government. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. [Google Scholar]), it would not be noteworthy to find a low level among Flint residents unless that level was significantly lower than the levels reported by random samples of Michiganders or Americans.Michigan comparisonWe compare our results about level of trust that Flint residents have in their government to the results of two other studies conducted around the same time as ours that examined the level of trust that Michiganders had in their government. The first is “Fractured Trust: Lost Faith in State Government, and How to Restore It” by the Center for Michigan (2017 The Center for Michigan. (2017). Fractured trust: Lost faith in state government, and how to restore it. Retrieved from http://www.bridgemi.com/public-sector/download-copy-fractured-trust-lost-faith-state-government-and-how-restore-it [Google Scholar]), a nonprofit, nonpartisan think tank. The center conducted a representative telephone poll of 2,000 Michigan residents from June 1 to 19, 2016, that asked 23 quantitative questions about public trust in state government. The results were adjusted by gender, race/ethnicity, age, and income using poststratification weighting to match population estimates for Michigan from the 2010 U.S. Census and 3-year estimates from the American Community Survey.Unlike our study, which asked about levels of agreement with the aggregate statement, “I trust my state government [in general],” using a 5-point scale, the Fractured Trust Study asked residents to rate their level of trust in the state government’s ability to perform specific functions on a 4-point scale. The Fractured Trust Study also asked about specific measures to reform state government and had residents select from predetermined answer options. As noted previously, we collected qualitative data on how to restore trust via an open-ended survey question (discussed further in Hypothesis 3) that did not prompt particular responses. The Fractured Trust Study did not ask about trust in local government.The second study (or, perhaps more accurately, data collection effort) is the State of the State Survey (hereafter SOSS) conducted by Michigan State University’s Institute for Public Policy and Social Research (2017). The Institute for Public Policy and Social Research administers the SOSS two to four times per year, with the questions and topics varying survey to survey. Each SOSS is a random sample of about 1,000 Michiganders who respond via phone, with half of the respondents reached by cell phone and half by landline. Here, we compare our results to the results for the SOSS questions, “How much of the time do you think you can trust local/state/federal government to do what is right?” (three separate questions, one for each level of government) that appeared in the winter SOSSs from 2013 to 2016. Our questions about trust differ from the ones in the SOSS in that we ask about the extent to which residents trust their government, not how often they trust the government.Given the aforementioned differences in wording between our survey questions and the questions that appeared in Fractured Trust and SOSS, we cannot say whether our findings are statistically significantly different from these other studies. We can, however, discuss how our results generally compare and the trends that emerged. Notably, even if the wording of our questions had been identical, statistical comparisons would have been problematic because the Fracture Trust and SOSS data sets contain a significant proportion of respondents from the Flint region (with no way for us to remove these respondents), potentially biasing results. And even if we could filter for non-Flint residents, making comparisons would be less than ideal because Flint is in Michigan and the state government responsible for the water crisis is the same state government governing these other, non-Flint respondents, meaning that the water crisis may have affected their responses as well. For these reasons, we statistically compare our results to a nationwide survey (below) that was not biased by the water crisis because the data predate it, and that had questions and answer options worded similarly to ours.Nationwide comparisonWe use chi-squared tests to compare the proportion of our study participants who agreed or strongly agreed with our statements about trust (“I trust my local/state government”) to the proportion of Gallup poll participants (a random survey of Americans) who stated that they have a “great deal” or “fair amount” of trust in their local and state governments (McCarthy, 2014 McCarthy, J. (2014). Americans still trust local government more than state. Retrieved from http://www.gallup.com/poll/176846/americans-trust-local-government-state.aspx [Google Scholar]). Gallup poll data were not available for the year 2016; therefore, comparisons were made to the lowest levels recorded between 1972 and 2014, the years for which we had data. The lowest level of trust in local government was 63% in 1972, and the lowest level of trust in state government was 52% in 2009 (McCarthy, 2014 McCarthy, J. (2014). Americans still trust local government more than state. Retrieved from http://www.gallup.com/poll/176846/americans-trust-local-government-state.aspx [Google Scholar]). Because we knew both the percentage of Americans who trusted government and the sample sizes of the Gallup polls, we constructed 2 × 2 contingency tables comparing the counts of our participants (Flint residents) who trust and do not trust the government to counts of Americans who did and did not trust the government at various points in time, for both local and state government.Hypothesis 2: Residents are more likely to consider leaving Flint if they have a low level of trust in their governments. We explore this hypothesis by running a regression on the responses to the survey item, “How strongly do you agree with the following statement: I am currently considering moving out of the city of Flint.” The answer options were strongly disagree, disagree, unsure, agree, and strongly agree, coded 0–4. In addition to using the trust in local and state government measures as independent variables, we included the following to control for participants’ sociodemographic and personal characteristics: race,44. Race was dummy coded, with dummy variables for African American and Caucasian only because no other group comprises more than 4.0% of the city’s population.View all notes age, gender, educational attainment, household income, number of years living in Flint, whether a child lived in the household, self-reported mental health,55. Responses to the survey item, “How strongly do you agree with the following statement: I am in good mental health.” The answer options were strongly disagree, disagree, unsure, agree, strongly agree.View all notes the degree to which participants believe that the water is safe with and without a filter, and when participants believe that all Flint residents will have access to clean, safe drinking water directly from their taps without a filter.We controlled for sociodemographic characteristics such as race and age because it was plausible that different groups have different levels of trust in government because of disparate treatment by the government during or prior to the crisis, such as the history of government disinvestment in African American neighborhoods in Flint through practices like redlining (Highsmith, 2015 Highsmith, A. R. (2015). Demolition means progress: Flint, Michigan, and the fate of the American metropolis. Chicago, IL: The University of Chicago Press.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]). We were also interested in personal characteristics because of the potential policy implications. If a particular socioeconomic or demographic variable predicts whether a resident considers leaving, policymakers could target interventions to those groups when trying to restore trust. Moreover, we controlled for the presence of children in the household, given that the long-term health effects of childhood lead exposure were widely reported by the media (e.g., Fox, 2016 Fox, M. (2016). CDC confirms lead levels shot up in Flint kids after water switch. Retrieved from https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/flint-water-crisis/cdc-confirms-lead-levels-shot-flint-kids-after-water-switch-n598496 [Google Scholar]), potentially making parents and guardians more likely to relocate their households for health concerns. We also included a mental health indicator because the media has reported that Flint residents are experiencing increases in stress, anxiety, and fear as a result of the water crisis (Anderson, 2016b Anderson, E. (2016b, August 6). Flint’s growing mental health crisis. Detroit Free Press. Retrieved from http://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/flint-water-crisis/2016/08/06/flint-water-crisis-donations-lead/88064570/ [Google Scholar]). Therefore, it is plausible that poor mental health correlates with the desire to leave the city. We thought that the three questions about water quality (whether the water is safe with a filter, without a filter, and when the water will be safe) would be telling because if a resident does not trust the water and does not think that the crisis will be over soon, then it is reasonable to believe that the resident will desire to leave.Hypothesis 3: There are measures that can be taken to restore, or at least improve, residents’ trust in government. Using the software program IBM SPSS Text Analytics for Surveys 4, we conducted content analysis on the questions, “What can be done to improve or increase your trust in your local government?” and “What can be done to improve or increase your trust in your state government?” Content analysis is an analytical technique that facilitates the quantification of qualitative data by deriving counts of keywords and themes that are then categorized (IBM Corporation, 2011 IBM Corporation. (2011). About text analysis. Retrieved from http://www.ibm.com/support/knowledgecenter/SS6A7K_4.0.1/com.ibm.spss.tafs.help/tas_intro.htm [Google Scholar]; Weber, 1990 Weber, R. (1990). Basic content analysis (2nd ed.). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]).66. Please refer to the user manual for detailed information. See IBM Corporation (2011).View all notes We manually checked the software’s results to ensure that the categorizations were reasonable.Results and discussionHypothesis 1A large proportion of our participants do not trust their local government. Only 2.2% strongly agreed and 9.1% agreed with the statement, “I trust my local government.” In addition, 19.3% were unsure; 24.0% disagreed; and 44.7% strongly disagreed. Compared to Michiganders’ level of trust in their local government, as indicated by the SOSS results shown in Table 1, Flint residents’ trust is much lower. If one considers those residents who stated in the SOSS that they “nearly always” or “some of the time” trust the local government to do what is right to be those participants who “trust their local government” (to make it parallel to our survey item), then there is a substantial difference between Michiganders and Flint residents. Around 80% of residents in the SOSS, regardless of year, trust their local government, compared to 11.3% of Flint residents who participated in our survey (the sum of those who agreed or strongly agreed with the survey items). Even if one is more conservative and only considers those SOSS respondents who stated that they “nearly always” trust the government to do what is right, there is still a large difference, because the comparison would then be around 40% (regardless of SOSS administration year) to 11.3%. Further, compared to the nationwide level of trust in local government in 1972 (the historic low in the Gallup polls), our participants’ level of trust was statistically significantly lower (χ2 = 230.566, df = 1, p < .001).Legacy city residents’ lack of trust in their governments: An examination of Flint, Michigan residents’ trust at the height of the water crisisAll authorsVictoria Morckel & Kathryn Terzanohttps://doi.org/10.1080/07352166.2018.1499415Published online:08 August 2018Table 1. State of the state survey results: Responses to the question, “How much of the time do you think you can trust local/state/federal government to do what is right?”CSVDisplay Table The results were similar for residents’ trust in state government. Only 2.2% strongly agreed and 5.2% agreed with the statement, “I trust my state government”; 13.8% of residents were unsure; 24.2% disagreed; and 53.3% strongly disagreed. Compared to the Center for Michigan’s Fractured Trust study results (shown in Table 2), Flint residents’ trust is likely lower. In Fractured Trust, between 35% and 46% of Michigan residents stated that they trust their government to perform various functions,77. These figures were determined by taking the percentages in Table 2 and subtracting them from 1. The percentages in the table indicate the proportion of residents with a low or very low level of trust; therefore, to obtain the percentage of residents with a moderate or high level of trust, we took the inverse. The range indicates the specific items with the highest and lowest levels (i.e., 46% trust the state’s ability to protect public health; 35% trust the state’s oversight of K–12 and public higher education).View all notes compared to only 7.4% for Flint. In the SOSS, around 70% of Michigan residents “nearly always” or “some of the time” trust their state government, regardless of year,88. Granted, the figure drops slightly (to 64.2%) at the height of the water crisis, but this drop does not alter the prevailing pattern of Michiganders’ level of trust being significantly higher than that of Flint residents who took part in our study.View all notes with that figure dropping to around 20% if one only considers the “nearly always” responses. But even if one considers this lower percentage (the lowest recorded between the two statewide studies), having 20% of Michigan residents trust the state government is still more than 7.4% of Flint residents. Further, compared to the nationwide level of trust in state government in 2009 (the historic low in the Gallup polls), our participants’ level of trust was once again statistically significantly lower (χ2 = 199.078, df = 1, p < .001).Legacy city residents’ lack of trust in their governments: An examination of Flint, Michigan residents’ trust at the height of the water crisisAll authorsVictoria Morckel & Kathryn Terzanohttps://doi.org/10.1080/07352166.2018.1499415Published online:08 August 2018Table 2. Percentage of Fractured Trust Study participants who have low or very low trust in specific state government functions.CSVDisplay Table Because the results for local and state government were similar (i.e., very low levels of trust for both levels of government in Flint), we checked for multicollinearity to avoid statistical assumption violations in subsequent analyses. We found a statistically significant correlation between the two trust variables, but the correlation was not so high as to create a collinearity problem (r = 0.316, p < .001; rs = 0.390, p < .001). Therefore, the responses to the questions about trust at different levels of government were unique enough to retain separate analyses rather than create an aggregate “trust in government” measure.Hypothesis 2As for our hypothesis about population loss, we found that a lack of trust in local government predicts the extent to which our participants are considering leaving the city, controlling for sociodemographic characteristics and perception of the water’s safety, F(14, 279) = 5.662, p < .001. About one fifth of the variance in responses was explained by the model (R2 = 0.207 and adjusted R2 = 0.173), which is a good model in the social sciences when examining latent variables like trust (Cohen, 1988 Cohen, J. (1988). Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences. Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum. [Google Scholar]). There were three individually significant predictors: the extent to which residents trust local government (as trust in local government increases, considering leaving the city decreases: B = −0.187, t = −2.321, p = .021); income (as income increases, considering leaving decreases: B = −0.100, t = −2.103, p = .036); and the extent to which residents feel the water is safe to drink with a filter (as trust in the water with a filter increases, considering leaving decreases: B = −0.313, t = −3.761, p < .001).99. We also ran a logistic regression analysis with the dependent variable collapsed into two categories (considering leaving or not). The results were similar to the ones reported here (where the ordinal variables were treated as though they are continuous). The same predictors were statistically significant in both analyses.View all notes We did not find that a lack of trust in state government predicts considering leaving (B = −0.007, t = −0.076, p = .939).To our knowledge, no other study has demonstrated a relationship between trust in local government and leaving or considering leaving a community. Given that local government is more accessible than state government and could be viewed as being more responsible for local conditions (Public Affairs Council, 2015 Public Affairs Council. (2015). Trust in government highest at local level. Retrieved from http://pac.org/wp-content/uploads/Impact_05_2015.pdf [Google Scholar]), it is not surprising to find that trust in local government has a greater effect on considering leaving than trust in state government. Further, for a lack of trust in state government to prompt a decision to relocate, residents would need to be willing to move out of state, which in the case of Flint is a bigger undertaking than simply relocating to an adjacent community because the city is not located near the state border.As for income, perhaps higher income residents are less likely to consider relocating because they have the means to improve their household’s water quality themselves. Some have invested in expensive whole-house water treatment options, such as reverse osmosis systems (Carmody, 2017a Carmody, S. (2017a). Experts caution Flint residents that “whole house water filters” have a downside. Retrieved from http://michiganradio.org/post/experts-caution-flint-residents-whole-house-water-filters-have-downside [Google Scholar]); others have paid for indoor pipe replacements because privately owned lead lines within homes may have been damaged by the improperly treated water and thus could leach heavy metals (Avetisyan, 2018 Avetisyan, A. (2018). Mistrust remains 2 years after Flint water crisis. Retrieved from https://www.voanews.com/a/mistrust-remains-2-years-after-flint-water-crisis/4189112.html [Google Scholar]; Marusic & Caruso, 2017 Marusic, K., & Caruso, S. (2017). Who should be responsible for replacing Pittsburgh’s lead water pipes? Retrieved from https://www.publicsource.org/who-should-be-responsible-for-replacing-pittsburghs-lead-water-pipes/ [Google Scholar]). At the very least, because they are more likely to own a vehicle and to be able to afford the extra expenditure, higher-income residents have a greater ability to obtain bottled water and basic filters. As a result, higher-income residents may feel more control over the water situation than lower-income residents (Rubin, 2016 Rubin, N. (2016, January 29). Outside Flint’s borders, but stuck with its water. The Detroit News. Retrieved from http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/michigan/flint-water-crisis/2016/01/29/outside-flint-water-burton/79550144/ [Google Scholar]), perhaps reducing their desire to move.Alternatively, perhaps lower-income residents were more likely to consider moving prior to the crisis but mobility was constrained due to a lack of employment, education, or housing options both in and outside of Flint. Housing and rental prices in Flint are low compared to surrounding communities and are very low compared to state and national averages (Vasel, 2016 Vasel, K. (2016). You can buy a house in Flint for $14,000. Retrieved from http://money.cnn.com/2016/03/04/real_estate/flint-housing-water-crisis/ [Google Scholar]). If low-income people are to some extent stuck in Flint and subjected to poor-quality services whereas others of greater means are able to leave (or to resolve some of the water quality or other problems themselves, using their own money), then there are social and environmental justice concerns that should be addressed by policymakers and examined in future studies. Though Flint residents faced environmental injustices prior to the crisis—due in large part to its suburbs keeping the poor and minorities confined to Flint through actions like incorporation to prevent annexation and exclusionary zoning practices (Highsmith, 2015 Highsmith, A. R. (2015). Demolition means progress: Flint, Michigan, and the fate of the American metropolis. Chicago, IL: The University of Chicago Press.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]; Sadler & Highsmith, 2016 Sadler, R. C., & Highsmith, A. R. (2016). Rethinking Tiebout: The contribution of political fragmentation and racial/economic segregation to the Flint water crisis. Environmental Justice, 9(5), 143–151. doi:10.1089/env.2016.0015[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar])—the water crisis and lack of hasty response represent an arguably more sinister form of injustice because of the immediate and long-lasting health effects of contaminated water.Moreover, according to media reports, many residents continue to rely on bottled water because they do not trust the water even with a filter (Carmody, 2017b Carmody, S. (2017b). Flint residents must travel farther to get free bottled water. Retrieved from http://michiganradio.org/post/flint-residents-must-travel-farther-get-free-bottled-water [Google Scholar]; Egan, 2016b Egan, P. (2016b, June 2). Poll: Flint residents don’t trust water filters. USA Today. Retrieved from https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2016/06/02/poll-flint-residents-dont-trust-water-filters/85284786/ [Google Scholar]) or because some households cannot fit the water filters onto their fixtures (Smith, 2017 Smith, L. (2017). 3 years after lead crisis, Flint residents still need water filters. Retrieved from http://www.npr.org/2017/04/25/525516761/3-years-after-lead-crisis-flint-residents-still-need-water-filters [Google Scholar]). No one wants to live with contaminated water; it is therefore not surprising to find that as trust in the water with a filter decreases, the extent to which residents consider leaving increases. It will be until at least 2020 before pipe replacements are completed in Flint (Dennis, 2017 Dennis, B. (2017, March 28). Facing lawsuit from residents and activists, government officials just agreed to replace 18,000 lead-tainted pipes in Flint. The Washington Post. Retrieved from https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/03/27/michigan-and-flint-just-agreed-to-replace-18000-lead-tainted-pipes/?utm_term=.f1e2ce8faf1d [Google Scholar]), so if residents do not believe that the filters make the water safe, then it follows that they may relocate. Five or so years (from 2015 to 2020) is too long to rely on bottled water for drinking, bathing, cooking, and other basic household functions. This point is emphasized by Elisha Anderson (2016a Anderson, E. (2016a, July 2). Flint’s broken trust: “I just can’t continue living like this.” Detroit Free Press. Retrieved from http://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/flint-water-crisis/2016/07/02/flint-water-crisis-summer-lead/86611654/ [Google Scholar]) of the Detroit Free Press: More than two years after issues first surfaced with Flint’s drinking water, many residents have no plans to switch from the bottled water upon which they’ve come to depend for their daily needs and say they don’t trust filters. They point out they’ve been lied to before and told that the lead-contaminated water was safe to drink, so now they don’t believe what government officials tell them. Without knowing how much longer they’ll have to live with the water crisis, many are considering moving. Some already have packed up and left.Thus, we believe that filter distribution efforts need to be consciously paired with other measures, like educational initiatives and regular testing of household water lead levels before and after the filters are installed, with timely results reported to households. However, these efforts should only occur if the water is truly made safe by the filters. Some reports question the filters’ effectiveness (see Hulett, 2016 Hulett, S. (2016). In Flint, trust in filters—and government—elusive. Retrieved from http://michiganradio.org/post/flint-trust-filters-and-government-elusive#stream/0 [Google Scholar], and Lynch, Carah, & Ramirez, 2016 Lynch, J., Carah, J., & Ramirez, C. (2016, January 29). Officials: High lead levels too much for Flint filters. The Detroit News. Retrieved from http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/michigan/flint-water-crisis/2016/01/29/flint-water-samples-high-lead/79542990/ [Google Scholar], for examples). If residents are told that the water is safe with a filter and that is later found to be false, additional damage will be done to residents’ trust in both the municipal water system and the government. But regardless of their effectiveness, water filters are not a long-term solution because they only last for a matter of months and can be expensive to replace—not to mention that residents may be unsure of when to replace them.Hypothesis 3Finally, we explored measures to restore trust in government. Table 3 provides a summary and comparison between the two levels of government. The most frequent response for restoring trust in local government was to remove local elected officials (13.3%). This action is within the power of residents; they could choose to organize and elect new people to the city council during the next election cycle, for example. However, we suspect that participants meant that elected officials should immediately be removed, although participants did not indicate how this process should occur and who should facilitate it. Further, our participants may have been inclined to call for the removal of elected officials, as opposed to unelected civic servants, simply because they are more visible and well known. Notably, since our survey, some officials and employees at both the local and state levels have left their positions voluntarily or have faced criminal charges (Egan & Anderson, 2016 Egan, P., & Anderson, E. (2016, December 20). Emergency managers, c